Sweet 16 Upset Picks: Can BYU or Arizona Win Outright as Underdog in Thursday's NCAA Tournament Battles?

We've made it to the second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament and there are quality matchups on tap that could result in plenty of March Madness. It all starts with the Sweet Sixteen, including four games scheduled to tip-off on Thursday night.

BYU and Alabama is a 6-seed vs. 2-seed matchup in the East Region that will start shortly after 7 p.m. ET. Half an hour later, we've got a 1-seed vs. 4-seed matchup in the West Region when the Florida Gators take on the Maryland Terrapins.

Two late tip-off times remain, with Arizona vs. Duke at 9:39 p.m. ET, followed by Arkansas vs. Texas Tech at 10:09 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils are the 1-seed in the East Region and the current betting favorite to win the National Championship at +230. Under iconic head coach John Calipari, 10-seed Arkansas beat Kansas and 2-seed St. John's as an underdog in both of their first two games played. The Razorbacks draw a matchup against 3-seed Texas Tech for the second game in the West Region on Thursday night.

NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay has his favorite Sweet Sixteen Day 1 Upset predictions and picks to tail on Thursday. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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Sweet 16 Upset Picks: Thursday, March 27th

BYU +5.5 (-110) vs. Alabama

BYU is arguably the hottest offense in March Madness right now. The Cougars are shooting the lights out, scoring 80 points against a good defensive team in the First Round against VCU, while building a big lead to hold off Wisconsin 91-89 in the Round of 32.

Led by their back court, G Richie Saunders and Egor Demin, combining for 26.8 points per game, BYU also has a strong presence on the glass. They rank 19th in total rebound percentage and 13th in offensive rating ahead of their Sweet Sixteen matchup against 2-seed Alabama.

The Crimson Tide are 11th in offensive rating, which is 118.5 versus BYU's 117.8. There's not much separation between these two talented scoring units, so it comes down to defense. BYU's defense is certainly more respectable than Alabama, ranking 141st in defensive rating (103.5) compared to 209th (105.7) for head coach Nate Oats' Crimson Tide.

BYU's only loss in its last 11 games came against 1-seed Houston's smothering defense, 74-54, during the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Otherwise, the Cougars have had minimal issues scoring at will and controlling tempo against quality opponents like Iowa State, Arizona, VCU, and Wisconsin.

BYU may win this game outright, so sprinkle half a unit on their +180 moneyline odds. However, I love getting +5.5 with a dynamic offense playing with supreme confidence against a weak defensive team like Alabama.

ARIZONA +9 (-110) vs. Duke

I wanted to play it a bit safer and back Arkansas +5.5 against Texas Tech, but that feels like it's going to be a very popular side on Day 1. I'd rather have some fun and bet into the most dominant team in the NCAA Tournament, since Arizona's star G Caleb Love has plenty of experience and success against Duke.

Love and the Wildcats erased an early double-digit deficit against Oregon in the Round of 32, showcasing their high-flying tempo and aggressive rebounding efforts throughout that win. It's not only Love to monitor in this matchup against the Blue Devils.

G Jaden Bradley is averaging 12 points per game, while KJ Lewis is also in double-figures and plays with an extremely high motor to elevate Arizona's offense. F Tobe Awaka leads the Wildcats with 8.0 rebounds per game, along with 7-footer Henri Veesaar in the front court.

Cooper Flagg and Tyrese Proctor are a ridiculously talented tandem on both ends of the court. Duke's pulled away from 16-seed Mount Saint Mary's and 9-seed Baylor during both NCAA Tournament games thus far.

The Blue Devils are among the only teams ranked inside the top-five in both offensive and defensive rating. They average 83.2 points per game while only allowing 61.7 points per game. Arizona's offense and speed will challenge Duke to record a win by nine or more points on Thursday night in Newark, New Jersey.

Arizona lost to Houston by eight points in the Big 12 Conference Final. Two of their other three losses since late February came by one point against BYU, 96-95, during a controversial foul-call, and a seven-point loss to Kansas.

Only two losses for the Wildcats were by 9+ points this season. This came against Texas Tech on January 18th and on the road against a healthy Iowa State offense on March 1st. It's been wheels up since those games for Arizona.

Duke has dominated opponents with Flagg healthy this season Yet, Arizona is a formidable opponent that can hang with the Blue Devils from start to finish. +9 is a value on Love and the Wildcats, so let's bet another unit on Arizona +9 against Duke on Thursday night.

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