Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament First Round Odds
The 12 seed Akron Zips are hoping to pull the upset on Friday afternoon against a banged-up Texas Tech team. Can they get it done without JT Toppin on the other side? Let's take a look at this Akron vs. Texas Tech prediction and best bet for Friday, March 20th.
OC Staff - March 20, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadAkron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction: Can the Zips Pull Off the Upset Against a Shorthanded Texas Tech Team in the Opening Round of March Madness?
This matchup has all the ingredients for a 5-vs-12 story the bracket gods keep writing every March. Texas Tech is without JT Toppin, who tore his ACL and won't play in the tournament, stripping their most dangerous interior finisher from a lineup that is already ice cold. Akron arrives here as one of the hottest teams in the country, and this is not a mid-major squad that just feels lucky to be in the bracket.
Their offense is more sophisticated than a typical MAC program. Akron ranks 6th nationally in eFG%, a number that belongs alongside power conference programs, not mid-major squads. Tavari Johnson anchors the attack at over 20 points per game. If this game opens up and the Zips get into a rhythm, the talent gap closes faster than the seed line implies.
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Recent Results
Texas Tech dropped three straight games to close out the regular season and then got sent home from the Big 12 Tournament after losing 75-53 to Iowa State. The Red Raiders finished 22-10 overall and 12-6 in conference play, tied for third in the Big 12. That end-of-season skid is hard to ignore for a team now entering March without their best player.
Akron is operating on a completely different energy. The Zips beat Toledo 79-76 in the MAC Tournament championship to stretch their win streak to 10 games, finishing 29-5 overall and going a dominant 17-1 in conference play. They have held opponents to 76 points or fewer in six straight games, and that is not a coincidence.
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Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds
• Spread: Texas Tech -7 (-110), Akron +7 (-110) • Moneyline: Texas Tech (-260), Akron (+260) • Total: Over 154.5 (-110), Under 154.5 (-110)
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, March 20th, 2026
- Time: 12:40 PM ET
- Where to Watch: truTV
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Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
The JT Toppin situation is the story here. He tore his ACL and will not play in the tournament, and his absence genuinely changes what Texas Tech is. Toppin was the Red Raiders' most versatile threat at the rim, and without him, Christian Anderson takes on a heavier playmaking burden behind a bench that thins out fast. Texas Tech still has talent, but this is not the same team that cracked the top 25 at points this season.
Akron is fully healthy and playing its best basketball at exactly the right time. Johnson averages 20.1 points per game and has been the engine of this offense all year. Akron takes 45.1% of its shots from three. The catch is that Texas Tech holds opponents to just 31.5% from deep, and whichever way that battle breaks will likely decide the margin.
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction
The lean here is toward Akron covering. Texas Tech is missing its best player, carrying a three-game losing streak, and sitting at 1-7 ATS in its last eight Friday games. Covering a number is harder than just winning, and this version of the Red Raiders has not been doing either reliably.
Akron's offense makes this complicated for Texas Tech even in their best-case scenario. The Zips are organized, efficient, and have three straight MAC Tournament titles under their belt, so the moment doesn't shrink them. The FairPlay AI model projects a 7.5-point edge for Akron against the spread, which lands right on top of the current line and puts this firmly in cover territory for the Zips.
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Best Bet
- Pick: Akron +7.5 (-105) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Pick: Amani Lyles Over 1.5 Threes (+144) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes Akron +7.5, and the case starts with the injury context. Toppin's ACL tear removes the one player who could control the paint against a Zips team that has kept six straight opponents under 76 points. Texas Tech has also gone 1-7 ATS over its last eight Friday games, and their spread cover rate has cratered since February. Akron has covered four of its last six games. The Zips are not here to lose quietly.
It also points to value on Amani Lyles Over 1.5 threes at +175. Lyles has been connecting from deep regularly, and Texas Tech's three-point defense ranks 46th nationally, solid but not a shutdown unit against a team that lives behind the arc. The FairPlay model projects this prop hitting at a 63.3% rate against a market that has it implied at just 36.4%, one of the widest mismatches on today's board. At plus money, this is not a number you pass on.
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