Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament First Round Odds
The No. 16 Long Island University Sharks are heading to Viejas Arena in San Diego to face the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Arizona is one of the most dominant teams in the country and enters as an overwhelming favorite, while LIU brings a five-game win streak and the "Fins Up" underdog energy that has already made them one of March's feel-good stories. Let's check out the latest odds and best bet for this LIU vs. Arizona prediction on March 20.
OC Staff - March 20, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadLong Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Prediction: Can the LIU Sharks Pull Off the Upset in the Opening Round of March Madness?
The talent gap between these two programs is enormous. Arizona enters at 32-2 overall and is ranked second in the AP poll. KenPom gives them a 99.6% chance to win this game outright. Arizona opened the season by beating five ranked opponents in their opening stretch, the first team in the AP era to do so, and finished with wins over 12 ranked opponents total. LIU won the NEC at 24-10, and while that record deserves respect, their competition level is nowhere near preparing them for what they are about to face.
The ATS question is where this gets worth unpacking. LIU's "Fins Up" crowd has turned them into a national curiosity, and Greg Gordon already dropped a quote about former LIU coach Tobin Anderson pulling off the Fairleigh Dickinson upset in 2023. The Sharks push tempo, shoot well from three, and have genuine offensive weapons. Arizona covers big spreads inconsistently, and 30.5 points is an enormous number to put on the board against any opponent.
Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Recent Results
Arizona closed out the regular season on a nine-game win streak and capped it with a 79-74 Big 12 Tournament title over Houston. The Wildcats went 16-2 in conference play against the toughest schedule in college basketball, and opponents shot just 39.2% against them for the season. Arizona averaged over 86 points on the other end. This is a machine operating at full capacity.
LIU won the NEC Tournament title with a 79-70 win over Mercyhurst on March 10, with Greg Gordon and Malachi Davis each dropping 24 points to lead the way. The Sharks are 5-0 in their last five and entered this tournament playing their best basketball of the season. LIU's 24 wins are the most in the Sharks era of the program, and this group has earned every bit of their "Fins Up" moment heading into San Diego.
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Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Odds
• Spread: Arizona -30.5 (-106), LIU +30.5 (-105) • Moneyline: Arizona (-10000), LIU (+8000) • Total: Over 148 (-110), Under 148 (-110)
Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, March 20th, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
Click here for complete Sharks vs. Wildcats Odds
Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
Arizona does not have a weakness LIU is equipped to exploit. The Wildcats rank in the top two nationally in defensive rebounding, while LIU checks in near the bottom of Division I in that same category. Tommy Lloyd's starting lineup features three freshmen, but none of them are the textbook version of that term: Brayden Burries and Koa Peat have won championships, and Ivan Kharchenkov played professionally in Germany before entering college. At 7-foot-2, Motiejus Krivas anchors the interior and takes away anything near the rim. Jaden Bradley, the Big 12 Player of the Year, jammed his left index finger in the Big 12 final, but Lloyd confirmed Thursday he has been practicing normally with nothing on his hand and is cleared to go.
LIU's best path to covering this spread runs through the perimeter. Jamal Fuller, who Tommy Lloyd called a "matchup nightmare" on Thursday, averages over 16 points a game while shooting 43.8% from three. Malachi Davis, a former Arizona State recruit, averages 14.4 points per game and drives the offense at the point. The Sharks plan to pack the paint and force Arizona to shoot threes, and notably Arizona ranks 358th in the country in three-point attempts per game. No injuries are listed for LIU heading into tipoff.
Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Prediction
Arizona wins this game comfortably, and it should not be close for most of the second half. The Wildcats have the size, speed, and frontcourt dominance to overwhelm a LIU team that ranks 287th nationally in defensive rebounding and near the bottom in turnover percentage. Once Arizona builds a double-digit lead in the first half, LIU does not have the firepower to come back against this defense. The statistical case for Arizona to win straight up is about as airtight as it gets in tournament play.
The spread is the conversation for bettors. Arizona is 2-6 ATS as a massive favorite this season, with that pattern showing up specifically when big leads send starters to the bench and garbage time absorbs the final ten minutes. LIU covers at a 60% clip as an underdog this year and plays hard until the final buzzer. The total sits at 150.5, and LIU trends heavily to the under recently. Arizona wins easily. Covering 30.5 against a team that competes hard for the full game is the actual question.
Long Island University Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats Best Bet
- Pick: LIU +30.5 (-105) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Pick: Malachi Davis Over 10.5 Points (-120) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes LIU to cover the 30.5-point spread. Arizona is 2-6 ATS as a massive favorite this season, and that number comes from a clear and repeatable pattern: Lloyd subs out starters once a game is over and bench units absorb final minutes against a team that is still competing hard. LIU covers at a 60% rate as an underdog this year, plays loud regardless of the margin, and enters a neutral site game with no road crowd working against them. Bettors backing Arizona to cover in 20-plus-point blowout spots all season have been losing money, and this number is even higher than most of those spots.
It also points to value on Malachi Davis Over 10.5 points at +102 on FanDuel. Davis averages 14.4 points per game this season and is LIU's primary offensive engine, meaning his shot volume does not drop even when the score gets out of hand. Arizona's defense ranks around 44th nationally in shot quality, which is strong but not a shutdown unit against a guard this comfortable pulling up in transition. The FairPlayAI model shows a 62.6% expected value edge on this prop at plus money. Lock this one in before tip.
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