Saint Louis vs. Michigan Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds
Saint Louis and Michigan meet in the NCAA Tournament second round after both teams rolled through their openers. The Billikens arrive with confidence after a statement win over Georgia, while Michigan used its size and depth to pull away from Howard. Let’s check out the odds and best bet for Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction on March 21.
OC Staff - March 21, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadSaint Louis vs. Michigan Prediction: Can Robbie Avila and the Billikens Hang Around Against Michigan’s Massive Frontcourt?
Saint Louis has the offensive firepower to make this interesting, but Michigan presents a very different kind of test in the round of 32. The Wolverines have the size, interior scoring and depth to pressure the Billikens over 40 minutes, and this matchup looks especially difficult for Saint Louis on the glass. With Michigan laying 12.5 and the total sitting at 161.5, the number reflects a game where scoring should come, but where Michigan’s physical advantages could steadily separate the teams.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan Recent Results
Saint Louis is 29-5, 16-4 A-10 and enters this game off a dominant 102-77 first-round win over Georgia. Before the NCAA Tournament, the Billikens were knocked out of the Atlantic 10 Tournament semifinals by Dayton in a 70-69 loss, but they looked fully reset in the opener and overwhelmed Georgia from the start.
Michigan is 32-3, 21-2 Big Ten and advanced with a 101-80 win over Howard in the first round. The Wolverines were pushed early, but Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara helped turn the game decisively after halftime, continuing the form of a team that also reached the Big Ten Tournament final before falling to Purdue.
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Saint Louis vs. Michigan Odds
- Spread: Saint Louis +12.5 (-110), Michigan -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Saint Louis (+780), Michigan (-110)
- Total: Over 162 (-110), Under 162 (-110)
Saint Louis vs. Michigan Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, March 21st, 2026
- Time: 12:10 PM ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
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Saint Louis vs. Michigan Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
Michigan’s biggest edge is obvious. The Wolverines can throw wave after wave of size at Saint Louis with Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. anchoring the frontcourt, and that matters against a Billikens team built around Robbie Avila’s skill and versatility. Michigan coach Dusty May and players have emphasized Saint Louis’ offensive depth, but the matchup still starts with whether SLU can hold up physically in the paint.
Saint Louis comes in with some momentum and belief after dismantling Georgia, but there is at least some concern around Avila physically after he was described this week as having been slowed by injuries. The Billikens remain dangerous because they can space the floor and score in bunches, yet this is a far more demanding size matchup than what they just saw in the first round.
Michigan, meanwhile, did not need a huge game from every perimeter piece in its opener because the frontcourt took over. Morez Johnson Jr. finished with 21 points against Howard, and Mara added 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists, which is exactly the kind of interior production that can stress Saint Louis over time.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan Prediction
Saint Louis has the offensive quality to keep this respectable for stretches. The Billikens just scored 102 in a tournament game, and they have enough shot-making to test a Michigan defense that was not airtight in the first half against Howard. But the key difference here is that Michigan can punish them in ways Georgia could not.
The biggest matchup issue is inside. Michigan’s frontcourt size is not just a cosmetic advantage. It changes rebounding angles, second-chance opportunities and the amount of physical work Avila has to do on both ends. Saint Louis can spread the floor and make shots, but Michigan can answer that with paint scoring, rim pressure and length around the basket. That is a difficult formula for a No. 9 seed to overcome for a full game.
This looks like a game where Saint Louis can land punches early, but Michigan’s size should wear the Billikens down as the game moves along. The Wolverines are better equipped for this kind of second-round matchup, and their first-round performance suggested they are comfortable winning with their frontcourt rather than relying on one star perimeter scorer. Michigan should advance, with the rebounding battle becoming the deciding factor.
Saint Louis vs. Michigan Best Bet
- Pick: Robbie Avila Under 5.5 rebounds (-143) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI projects value on Avila to stay under this number, with a 17.7% positive EV and a model probability of 69.2% against a market-implied 58.8%. The matchup is the main reason why. Michigan’s size with Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara creates a far tougher rebounding environment, and Avila will have to spend plenty of energy away from the rim offensively as well.
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