Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds
The defending national champion Florida Gators look to continue their title defense against an Iowa Hawkeyes team led by All-American guard Bennett Stirtz, who has followed coach Ben McCollum across three schools and isn't ready for the ride to end. Florida dropped a 59-point beatdown on Prairie View A&M in the first round, while Iowa gutted out a 67-61 win over Clemson with Stirtz shooting just 4-of-17 from the field. Let's check out the odds and best bet for this Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators prediction on Sunday, March 22.
OC Staff - March 22, 2026, 6:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadIowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Prediction: Can Iowa Pull Off the Upset in the Second Round of March Madness?
Florida is the clear favorite here, and the betting market reflects it with the Gators installed as 10.5-point favorites at DraftKings. The talent gap between a No. 1 seed defending its crown and a No. 9 seed that barely squeaked into the tournament at 10-10 in Big Ten play is real, and Florida's frontcourt trio of Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Rueben Chinyelu has no equivalent on Iowa's roster. This is a team built to bully opponents inside while also running the floor at a pace Iowa rarely sees.
Iowa's path to pulling this off runs through Stirtz and tempo control. The Hawkeyes rank 358th nationally in adjusted tempo, meaning they want to grind possessions and force halfcourt battles that minimize Florida's athletic advantages. If Stirtz can bounce back from his rough shooting night and Iowa can force turnovers at the rate they did all season (15th nationally in turnover rate), there's a world where this stays competitive into the final 10 minutes. The Gators rank 156th in the country at taking care of the ball, and that is Iowa's one legitimate path to keeping the score close.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Recent Results
Iowa enters at 22-12 overall after its 67-61 win over Clemson in the first round on Friday night. The Hawkeyes led wire to wire despite Stirtz's shooting struggles, leaning on offensive rebounding (15 boards on the offensive glass) and free throw shooting (24-of-31 from the line) to survive. Kael Combs scored 15 points and Alvaro Folgueiras came off the bench with 14, showing Iowa has secondary options when Stirtz is off. Cam Manyawu added 10 rebounds, the most by a Hawkeye in an NCAA Tournament game since 2006. It was far from pretty, but McCollum's group finds ways to win ugly.
Florida is 27-7 and looked every bit like a championship contender in its 114-55 demolition of Prairie View A&M. Seven Gators scored in double figures, Boogie Fland went 6-for-6 from the field, and Chinyelu broke the school record with his 19th double-double of the season (14 points, 13 rebounds). The 59-point margin was the second-largest in NCAA Tournament history, trailing only Loyola Chicago's 69-point win over Tennessee Tech in 1963. The team shot 64.3% from the floor and had a 38-0 first-half advantage in points in the paint. Coming into the tournament off a blowout loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semis, the Gators responded, and they responded with the most convincing first-round performance in the entire bracket.
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Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TBS
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Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
The matchup starts and ends with size. Florida's frontcourt of Condon (6'11"), Haugh, and Chinyelu brings down at least six rebounds per game apiece, and the Gators rank first in the country at 42.4 rebounds per game. Iowa's tallest rotation player is Manyawu at 6'8", and the Hawkeyes rank 358th in total rebounding. Michigan's frontcourt combined for 46 points on 17-of-25 shooting against Iowa earlier this season, and Florida's bigs should have a similar field day. Both teams appear healthy enough to trust their full rotations, with no significant injury concerns heading into Sunday's tipoff at 7:10 PM ET on TBS from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa.
The tempo battle is the game within the game. Iowa wants to slow this down to somewhere around 54-58 possessions, the same range that produced their win over Clemson. Florida ranks 29th in pace and wants transition opportunities, fast breaks, and chaos. Stirtz acknowledged the challenge directly in Saturday's press conference, saying the Hawkeyes' advantage is playing slow and getting the best shot possible. Florida's Fland was equally blunt about the defensive plan: contain Stirtz, no threes, and team defense. Whoever wins the pace war likely wins the game.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Prediction
Florida wins this game, and the question is really just about margin. The Gators have too many weapons, too much size, and too much depth for an Iowa team that relies on Stirtz for nearly 27% of its total scoring. When Stirtz shot under 40% from the field this season, Iowa went 1-5 before the Clemson game. The defensive gameplan will make life difficult for him all night, and Iowa doesn't have a second gear offensively if those shots aren't falling.
The saving grace for Iowa is that this won't be a 59-point blowout. Iowa will drag the pace down, force Florida into some sloppy possessions, and make this a grind for stretches. Iowa's turnover-forcing ability is the one matchup edge they hold, and it should generate enough extra possessions to keep the game from spiraling early. But once Florida gets set in the halfcourt, the interior mismatch takes over. Condon and Chinyelu will feast inside while Fland and Lee pressure Stirtz into contested looks. Florida wins by double digits in a game that feels closer than the final score.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Best Bet
- Pick: Under 145.5 (-110) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Pick: Bennett Stirtz Under 18.5 Points (+102) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes the Under 145.5 in this one, and the matchup dynamics back it up. Iowa plays at the slowest tempo in the country and will do everything possible to keep possession counts low, the same approach that held the Clemson game to just 128 combined points on 54 possessions. The Gators are 18-16 ATS this season, meaning they've been inconsistent as heavy favorites, but the total is where the value sits. In Iowa's two games this season against teams faster than Florida, the Under cashed on their team total both times. The pace mismatch points one direction.
It also points to value on Stirtz Under 19.5 points. He shot 4-of-17 against Clemson and has failed to crack 40% from the field in multiple recent outings, a trend that spells trouble against a Florida defense that ranks inside the top 30 in preventing three-point attempts. Fland already told the media the gameplan is to take away Stirtz's looks beyond the arc, and if Florida executes that strategy, Stirtz will be left trying to score over a frontcourt that blocked 11 shots in its first-round win. With the Gators keying on one player and Iowa's slow pace limiting total possessions, the under on his points line carries real value before the market adjusts.
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