Miami vs. Purdue Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds for Sunday, March 22nd
Miami and Purdue meet in the NCAA Tournament second round after both handled business in the opener, but in very different ways. Purdue coasted past Queens behind another huge Braden Smith performance, while Miami had to grind through Missouri to survive and advance. Let’s break down the odds, recent results, and best bet for Miami vs. Purdue on March 22, 2026.
OC Staff - March 22, 2026, 11:40 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadMiami vs. Purdue Prediction: Can the Hurricanes Slow Down Purdue’s Machine?
Purdue looked every bit like a No. 2 seed in its first-round win, overwhelming Queens 104-71 while shooting 63.1% from the field and getting 26 points and eight assists from Braden Smith. Miami was tested much more seriously, beating Missouri 80-66 in a physical game behind 24 points from Malik Reneau.
This second-round matchup is fascinating because Miami has the size and interior toughness to challenge Purdue in ways Queens could not. The Hurricanes also have enough shot creation to make Purdue work for 40 minutes, which is why this feels more competitive than a typical 2 vs. 7 game.
Miami vs. Purdue Recent Results
Purdue is 28-8, 13-7 Big Ten and opened the tournament with a dominant 104-71 win over Queens. Braden Smith broke the NCAA career assist record in that game, while Trey Kaufman-Renn added 25 points and Purdue buried 14 threes in a statement performance.
Miami is 26-8, 13-5 ACC and advanced with an 80-66 win over Missouri. The Hurricanes pulled away late behind Malik Reneau’s 24 points and a strong all-around effort in a game that was far more physical and competitive than Purdue’s opener.
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Miami vs. Purdue Odds
- Spread: Purdue -8 (-110), Miami (FL) +8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Purdue (-335), Miami (FL) (+285)
- Total: Over 147.5 (-110), Under 147.5 (-110)
Miami vs. Purdue Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
- Time: 12:10 PM ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
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Miami vs. Purdue Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
Purdue’s offense is still the story. The Boilermakers rank among the nation’s best in effective field goal percentage and assists, and they play through one of the most organized half-court attacks in the country. Even in a blowout opener, Smith controlled everything.
Miami presents a different challenge than Queens because the Hurricanes are sturdier inside. They rebound better than Purdue on paper and have enough frontcourt size to try to clog passing lanes into the paint and make Smith work harder to create clean assist chances. That is especially important against a Purdue team that loves to generate efficient looks through timing and ball movement rather than pace.
The biggest concern for Miami remains turnovers. Purdue protects the ball at an elite level, while Miami has been shakier there all season. If the Hurricanes get loose with possessions, Purdue can turn this into another comfortable win. If Miami keeps the game physical, limits easy entries and forces Purdue into more isolation scoring, the gap gets tighter.
Miami vs. Purdue Prediction
Miami is good enough to make this uncomfortable for stretches, especially with its interior defense and physicality. The Hurricanes just came through a gritty first-round game and should not be rattled by the moment.
Still, Purdue is the cleaner, more reliable team. The Boilermakers have the better offensive structure, the better ball security, and the best player on the floor in Smith. After the way they shot it in round one, they should be able to withstand Miami’s pressure and eventually separate.
Purdue advances, but Miami has enough toughness to make the Boilers earn it.
Miami vs. Purdue Best Bet
- Pick: Braden Smith Under 9.5 Assists (+110) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI sees this as one of the strongest props on the board, giving it a massive +EV edge of 69.6% with the model projecting the under to hit 80.8% of the time against a market implied probability of 47.6%.
The case is straightforward. Miami’s interior defense is strong enough to take away some of the easy assist opportunities Purdue generated against Queens, and this should be a much more competitive, half-court oriented game. Smith can still control the game without getting to 10 assists, especially with Purdue’s scoring spread across multiple options.
He had eight assists in the opener, but this matchup is tougher stylistically. Miami will know exactly where Purdue’s offense starts, and slowing down Smith’s playmaking will be the first priority.
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