St. John's vs. Kansas Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds for March 22nd
St. John’s meets Kansas in one of the marquee second-round games of March Madness, with Rick Pitino and Bill Self meeting in a battle of legacy programs and Hall of Fame coaches. The Johnnies stormed through the first round, while Kansas looked sharp early before letting Cal Baptist back into the game late. Let’s break down the odds, recent results, and best bet for St. John’s vs. Kansas on March 22, 2026.
OC Staff - March 22, 2026, 3:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadSt. John’s vs. Kansas Prediction: Can the Johnnies’ Defense Smother Darryn Peterson?
This has the feel of one of the best games of the round. St. John’s comes in with real momentum after ripping through Northern Iowa, and it has now won 20 of its last 21 games while chasing its first Sweet 16 since 1999. Kansas still has the star power to win this game, but it did not exactly inspire confidence late in the first round after allowing Cal Baptist to trim a 26-point hole down to six in the final minute.
The biggest question is whether Kansas can get enough efficient offense around Peterson against a St. John’s defense that has been dominant for weeks. St. John’s has built its identity on pressure, physicality, and forcing teams into ugly possessions, and that is a dangerous formula against a Kansas team that has too often looked dependent on Peterson to carry the scoring load.
St. John’s vs. Kansas Recent Results
St. John’s is 29-6, 18-2 Big East and rolled past Northern Iowa 79-53 in the first round. The Red Storm jumped out 13-0, led by 19 at halftime, and never let the Panthers seriously threaten after that. Zuby Ejiofor posted 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Bryce Hopkins and Oziyah Sellers both finished in double figures.
Kansas is 24-10, 12-6 Big 12 and survived California Baptist 68-60. The Jayhawks built a huge lead and looked headed for a comfortable finish, but the Lancers made it interesting late before Kansas finally closed it out. Peterson poured in 28 points and Tre White added 12 points with seven assists.
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St. John's vs. Kansas Odds
- Spread: St. John’s -3.5 (-110), Kansas +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: St. John’s (-175), Kansas (+148)
- Total: Over 144 (-110), Under 144 (-110)
St. John's vs. Kansas Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
- Time: 5:15 PM ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
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St. John’s vs. Kansas Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
The emotional subplot here is Ejiofor facing his former team, but the more important basketball angle is how St. John’s defends Peterson. Dillon Mitchell is expected to see a lot of that assignment, and Pitino has already pointed to Mitchell’s length and versatility as a major factor in the matchup. Peterson is Kansas’ clear headliner and is averaging 20.1 points per game, but St. John’s has the athletes to make every catch and every drive difficult.
St. John’s also looks much more complete right now than it did earlier in the season. Hopkins has rounded back into form at the perfect time, giving the Johnnies another reliable offensive option to pair with Ejiofor and Sellers. That matters because Kansas will not be able to load everything onto one player or one action defensively.
For Kansas, the concern is whether the supporting cast can consistently help Peterson enough against this defense. The Jayhawks were able to get away with some uneven stretches against Cal Baptist because Peterson exploded for 28, but relying on that formula again against a surging St. John’s team is risky.
St. John’s vs. Kansas Prediction
This game should be physical and tense from the opening tip. Kansas has enough talent to win it, and Peterson is good enough to swing any game on his own. But St. John’s looks like the steadier team right now. The Johnnies are defending at a high level, they are deeper into their identity, and they just look more comfortable playing the kind of ugly, pressure-filled tournament game that can wear an opponent down over 40 minutes.
Kansas can absolutely keep this close if Peterson gets hot early and the Jayhawks hold up on the glass, but St. John’s has more ways to win this matchup. The Johnnies are in better form, have the better recent defensive profile, and should be able to make Peterson work for everything.
St. John’s vs. Kansas Best Bet
- Prop Pick: Darryn Peterson Under 23.5 Points (-112) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI flags Peterson under 23.5 points as one of the strongest edges in this matchup, projecting a 45.7% positive EV with the model hitting this outcome at a 77.3% implied probability against a 53.1% market expectation.
The handicap makes sense. Peterson just had to score 28 to drag Kansas through the first round, but this is a much tougher defensive environment. St. John’s has the bodies to throw at him, Mitchell is expected to be heavily involved in that assignment, and Pitino’s team has been suffocating opponents for weeks. Kansas may still stay in the game, but asking Peterson to clear this kind of number against an elite, locked-in defense is a tough bet.
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