Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds
Two of the best offenses in the country are about to collide in Tampa with a Sweet 16 ticket on the line. The No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders and No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide each rolled in the first round, but both are dealing with major absences that reshape this game entirely. Let's check out the odds and best bet for this Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide prediction on Sunday, March 22.
OC Staff - March 22, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadTexas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction: Can Texas Tech's Shooters Keep Up With the Tide's Tempo?
Alabama is, on paper, the more dangerous team when it comes to raw offensive firepower. The Crimson Tide lead the nation at 91.7 points per game and have six players who can score in double figures on any given night, even without suspended guard Aden Holloway. Texas Tech counters with the country's No. 1 ranked attack-and-kick offense and a backcourt that can fill it up from deep in a hurry. The Red Raiders are 4-3 without All-American JT Toppin, and whether they get the version that torched Akron or the one that went quiet against Iowa State will determine how this game ends.
What makes this matchup so compelling is the tempo battle at its core. Alabama plays at the fourth-fastest pace in the country per KenPom, while Tech ranks 253rd and wants to grind through half-court sets. The Crimson Tide pushing the pace and forcing scramble possessions is where their athletic edge shows up. Tech slowing this down into a half-court game is the scenario where their elite shooting becomes the equalizer.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Recent Results
Texas Tech is 23-10 (12-6 Big 12) and enters Sunday's game off a dominant 91-71 win over Akron in the first round. The Red Raiders had five players in double figures against the Zips, highlighted by a career-high 24 from freshman Jaylen Petty. Tech shot 55% from three in that game and looked like a team that had fully adjusted to life without Toppin, who tore his ACL on February 17 against Arizona State.
Alabama is 24-9 (13-5 SEC) and handled Hofstra 90-70 in their opening round game. Labaron Philon Jr. went off for 29 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists in that one, looking every bit the projected first-round pick he is. The Crimson Tide played their first game without Holloway and didn't miss a beat on the scoreboard, getting double-figure scoring from five different players. Alabama has now won their first-round tournament game three years running and are chasing a third straight Sweet 16 trip.
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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
- Time: 9:45 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TBS
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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
The biggest storyline for Texas Tech is the absence of Toppin, who averaged 21.8 points per game before going down with a torn ACL. He was pulling down 10.8 rebounds a night too, production that simply doesn't get replaced. Christian Anderson has picked up the offensive load, averaging 18.9 points on the season. He's also third nationally in assists at 7.6 per game. Donovan Atwell is the other engine, shooting 45.9% from deep on high volume. Freshman Petty proved in the first round that he can be a third scoring option when the moment calls for it.
Alabama's missing piece is Holloway, who was suspended indefinitely after a felony drug arrest on March 16. He averaged 16.8 points per game and was the Tide's most lethal perimeter weapon at 43.8% from three. That's a significant loss, but Alabama proved against Hofstra that the scoring can come from elsewhere. Philon is one of the best guards in the country and carries an expanded creation role without Holloway. Aiden Sherrell posted a 15-point, 15-rebound double-double in the first round, and Taylor Bol Bowen stepped up with 15 of his own. The Crimson Tide have enough weapons to absorb the hit.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction
Alabama should win this game. The Crimson Tide have more overall depth, more size on the interior, and the ability to dictate tempo in a way that stretches Tech's defense thin. Without Toppin, the Red Raiders lose their rim protection and rebounding anchor, and that matters against a team with Sherrell and Amari Allen crashing the glass. If this game gets into the 70-possession range, Alabama has the athletes to capitalize.
The concern for Tech is that their margin for error is razor-thin without their best player. Anderson and Atwell can keep this close if shots are falling, but the Red Raiders shot 64% from the field and 55% from three in the first round. That isn't happening against SEC-caliber length and athleticism. Alabama's defense isn't elite, ranked 65th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, but the Tide have enough size to contest looks that Akron simply couldn't. Expect a game that stays tight into the final stretch before Alabama's scoring depth carries them across the finish line, something like 84-80.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Best Bet
- Pick: Alabama -1.5 (+105) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Pick: Donovan Atwell Over 3.5 Three Pointers (-139) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes Alabama to cover this short number, and the matchup context backs it up. Toppin's absence is the bigger loss: 21.8 points per game gone, plus the rebounding anchor who pulled down 10.8 boards a night. The Red Raiders are just 4-3 without their star. Texas Tech opened as a 1.5-point favorite before the line flipped entirely, with Alabama now sitting as the favorite at every major book. The market agrees that the Tide have the better roster when you stack both teams' absences against each other.
It also points to value on Atwell Over 3.5 three-pointers. He's cleared that number in seven of his last eight games, averaging 4.8 threes per game during that stretch. Alabama ranks 253rd in the country in three-pointers allowed per game, and that defensive weakness plays directly into Atwell's hands as Tech's primary floor-spacer. At -119, there's a clean window to grab this before the price moves any further.
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