UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Second Round Odds
Two of college basketball's most decorated programs meet Sunday night with a Sweet 16 spot on the line, and both are dealing with injury concerns that could flip this game on its head. The No. 7 UCLA Bruins survived without leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau in a 75-71 win over UCF, while the No. 2 UConn Huskies got a historic Tarris Reed Jr. performance to hold off Furman 82-71. Let's check out the odds and best bet for this UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies prediction on Sunday, March 22.
OC Staff - March 22, 2026, 10:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadUCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Prediction: Can the UCLA Bruins Pull Off the Upset in the Second Round of March Madness?
This game has the feel of a tournament classic, with two veteran coaches in Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley who will make the sideline atmosphere alone worth the price of admission. UCLA proved it can win ugly on the road without its best player, and UConn showed that Tarris Reed Jr. can single-handedly keep the Huskies alive when the shots aren't falling. The real question entering Sunday night: which team gets healthier first?
The Bruins rank 27th in KenPom while UConn sits at 11th, anchored by a top-five defense nationally. UCLA has played like a top-15 offense over the past month, fueled by Donovan Dent's absurd 13.8 assist-to-turnover ratio in his last nine games. If both teams are at full strength, this looks like a heavyweight fight that goes the distance, and the 4.5-point spread reflects just how tight the margins could be.
UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Recent Results
UCLA is 24-11 (13-7 Big Ten) and enters Sunday on the heels of a tournament win that almost slipped away. The Bruins held a 14-point lead over UCF with seven minutes left and nearly blew it before scraping out the 75-71 finish. Eric Dailey Jr. carried the scoring load with 20 points, while Xavier Booker and Trent Perry each chipped in 15. UCLA also won two straight in the Big Ten Tournament, including an upset of No. 8 Michigan State, before falling to Purdue in the semis. That stretch, combined with home wins over Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska earlier in the year, gave them plenty of resume padding for the committee.
UConn is 30-5 (17-3 Big East) and enters after a first-round performance that featured one of the wildest individual stat lines in tournament history. Reed Jr. went off for 31 points and 27 rebounds against Furman, out-rebounding the entire Paladins team by himself. ESPN noted he joined Bill Walton (who did it for UCLA in 1972) as the only players in 60 years with 30 points, 20 rebounds, and 80% shooting in an NCAA Tournament game. Alex Karaban added 22 points to support him, which was necessary because the Huskies shot a brutal 5-for-25 from three-point range. UConn handled its business without starting point guard Silas Demary Jr. and reserve forward Jaylin Stewart, both of whom missed the game with injuries.
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UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Odds
UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 22nd, 2026
- Time: 8:45 PM ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
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UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
The injury report is the story of this game, and it cuts both ways. UCLA's Tyler Bilodeau (knee) is questionable after sitting out the UCF win and the Big Ten Tournament semifinal loss to Purdue. Cronin said he looked good in Thursday practice but woke up stiff on Friday and was held out. Getting him back would give the Bruins their leading scorer at 17.6 points per game, and a floor-stretching big who shoots 46.4% from three. Without him, UCLA leans on Dailey, Dent, and Perry to carry the load, which worked once against UCF but becomes a lot harder against UConn's defense.
On the UConn side, Demary (ankle) and Stewart (knee) are both questionable after missing the Furman game. Hurley said both are "pushing it to the max" to be available, but would not commit to either playing. Demary's absence matters most. He averages 6.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game, and his ball pressure would be a real factor against Dent and Perry. Without him, the Huskies leaned on Malachi Smith and Alec Millender at point guard, who combined for six points on 2-for-5 shooting. UConn survived that arrangement against Furman's backcourt, but UCLA's guards are a completely different animal.
UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Prediction
UConn should win this game, but covering 4.5 points is a different conversation. The Huskies have covered just six of their last 20 games, and their record 14-game NCAA Tournament cover streak (longest since 1979) ended Friday against Furman. Reed Jr. is set up to have another massive night against a UCLA interior defense that ranks in the bottom 200 nationally in two-point percentage allowed over the past month. Cronin has already turned to zone to mask that weakness, and that's exactly the kind of adjustment that slows the game down and keeps the score tight.
UCLA's path to pulling the upset runs through Dent, who is averaging 7.5 assists on the year and had a triple-double in the Big Ten Tournament just two weeks ago. His playmaking keeps possessions alive and creates open looks for shooters like Perry and Dailey. The Bruins also covered 60% of their games against ranked opponents this season, so tight finishes against quality teams are nothing new for Cronin's group. Both teams prefer to play in the half-court, grinding through motion sets rather than running in transition. That tempo profile points to a low-scoring affair, which is how UCLA keeps this within striking distance late. UConn wins 69-65 in a game that stays close the entire way.
UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies Best Bet
- Pick: Under 137.5 (-118) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Pick: Tarris Reed Jr. Over 15.5 Points (-118) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes the Under here, and this one sets up cleanly from multiple angles. Both Cronin and Hurley are defensive-minded coaches who slow games down and grind through half-court possessions. Sub-140 totals have trended Over through the first two days of the tournament, but those games featured teams with far more pace than what we're getting Sunday night. UConn and UCLA both rank outside the top 100 in tempo, and the injury uncertainty on both sides only increases the chances of sloppy, low-possession stretches. The public is backing the Over at 62%, which means the market has room to punish.
It also points to value on Reed Jr.'s points over. He has exceeded this number in three of his last four games, and his 31-point explosion Friday proved he can dominate when UConn needs him to carry the offense. UCLA's interior defense has been leaking buckets for weeks, and switching to zone only funnels more touches to a center who shoots nearly 65% from the field. Reed is healthy, the matchup screams paint dominance, and the line hasn't caught up to what he's been doing recently.
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