Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NIT Quarterfinal Odds for Tuesday, March 24th
Saint Joseph’s heads to Albuquerque to face New Mexico in the NIT quarterfinals after two gritty road wins, while the Lobos return home looking to keep their strong run alive. The Hawks have been battle-tested in this tournament already, but New Mexico is a double-digit favorite at The Pit in a difficult road environment. Let’s break down the odds, recent results, and best bet for Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico on Tuesday, March 24.
OC Staff - March 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadSaint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Prediction: Will Lobos Roll Again in NIT Quarterfinal?
This quarterfinal sets up as a fascinating contrast. Saint Joseph’s has survived two tough road games to get here, including a comeback from 19 down against Cal, and now has to walk into one of the toughest environments left in the NIT. New Mexico, meanwhile, has looked much more comfortable at home and has put up 193 points across its first two tournament wins.
The biggest question is whether Saint Joseph’s can turn this into another grind and hang around long enough for Derek Simpson and the Hawks guards to make big plays late. New Mexico wants tempo, pressure, and a game that gets played in waves. Saint Joseph’s wants to rebound, defend, and make the Lobos earn everything in the half court. That tension is what makes this one so interesting.
Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Recent Results
Saint Joseph’s is 24-11, 14-6 A-10 and has taken a dramatic path to the quarterfinals. The Hawks opened the NIT with a 69-64 road win at Colorado State, then followed it up with a stunning 76-75 comeback win at Cal after trailing by 19 in the second half. Derek Simpson led the way in the Colorado State win with 13 points, and Saint Joseph’s showed real resilience in Berkeley to steal the second-round game late.
New Mexico is 25-10, 13-7 Mountain West and has looked sharp through two home wins. The Lobos beat Sam Houston 107-83 in the opening round, then rolled past George Washington 86-61 to reach the quarterfinals. Jake Hall scored 19 in the win over George Washington, and New Mexico has continued to look dangerous offensively at The Pit.
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Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico Odds
Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 24th, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
Click here for complete Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico Odds
Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
Saint Joseph’s has leaned on its toughness and shot-making under pressure to get here, and Derek Simpson remains the central name to watch. He is the kind of guard who can keep the Hawks competitive in a road setting, especially if the game tightens late. The Hawks have also gotten enough support around him to survive despite some uneven offensive stretches.
New Mexico brings the stronger offensive profile into the game and will try to use its home floor to speed Saint Joseph’s up. The Lobos have been much cleaner with the ball and far more explosive in this tournament so far, which is a major reason they are laying a big number here. Their pace and scoring punch are the main pressure points for a Saint Joseph’s team that has had to scratch out both of its NIT wins.
There is also a clear venue factor here. The Pit has been a major edge for New Mexico in this event, and local coverage has highlighted how important the home crowd has been through the first two rounds. That is a much different setup than what Saint Joseph’s saw in its previous games, even if the Hawks have already proven they can win away from home.
Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Prediction
Saint Joseph’s has been impressive, especially with the comeback at Cal, but this is a much tougher ask. New Mexico has the better scoring profile, the better setting, and the cleaner path stylistically if it can push this game into the open floor. The Lobos have also looked more comfortable in their NIT games than Saint Joseph’s, which has needed late execution just to survive.
That said, the spread is big enough that Saint Joseph’s still has a path to being competitive. The Hawks rebound well enough to make New Mexico work, and they have the kind of veteran guard play that can keep an underdog inside the number. If Simpson gets downhill and finds rhythm early, Saint Joseph’s can make this much more uncomfortable than the line suggests.
Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico Best Bet
- Pick: Derek Simpson Over 13.5 Points (-125) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI likes Simpson to go over 13.5 points, projecting strong value with a 73.6% model probability against a 55.6% market-implied probability, good for a 32.6% expected value edge. In a game where Saint Joseph’s may be playing from behind for stretches and relying on its lead guard to answer runs, the scoring volume should be there.
Simpson is the clearest path for the Hawks to stay within striking distance. New Mexico’s offense should create urgency on the other side, and Saint Joseph’s has already shown in this tournament that when it gets pressed, it turns to Simpson to make plays. That makes his over the strongest angle on the board.
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