Illinois State vs. Dayton Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NIT Quarterfinal Odds for Wednesday, March 25th
Dayton hosts Illinois State in the NIT quarterfinal on Wednesday night. Here is our prediction, betting pick, recent results, and top storyline for the Redbirds and Flyers.
OC Staff - March 25, 2026, 6:25 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadIllinois State vs. Dayton Prediction: Can Flyers Control the Pace at Home in NIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday Night?
Dayton returns home for the NIT quarterfinal looking to keep its season alive, but Illinois State arrives with real confidence after knocking off Wake Forest on the road. The Flyers are favored by 7.5 at UD Arena, yet this shapes up as a disciplined, lower-possession game between two teams that have already shown they can win in March.
The Redbirds have been one of the better stories in this tournament so far, surviving two very different tests to reach the quarterfinals. Dayton, meanwhile, has leaned on its home floor, second-half defense, and balanced scoring to advance, and that same formula should give the Flyers the edge again in a matchup that points toward a controlled tempo. The attached sheet had some outdated matchup context, so this version reflects the corrected tournament path and player group for both teams.
Illinois State vs. Dayton Recent Results
Illinois State enters at 22-12 overall after beating Kent State 79-58 in the NIT first round and then stunning Wake Forest 78-75 on Johnny Kinziger’s late 3-pointer in the second round. The Redbirds finished 12-8 in MVC play and have gotten timely production from Chase Walker, Johnny Kinziger, Boden Skunberg, and a deeper supporting cast throughout this run.
Dayton comes in at 25-11 overall after opening the NIT with an 80-66 win at Bradley and following it with an 80-61 win at UNCW. The Flyers finished 12-6 in the A-10, and their path to this quarterfinal has featured strong scoring from Javon Bennett and De'Shayne Montgomery, plus major frontcourt work from Amaël L'Etang and Jordan Derkack.
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Illinois State vs. Dayton Odds
Illinois State vs. Dayton Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, March 25th, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN2
Click here for complete Illinois State vs. Dayton Odds
Illinois State vs. Dayton Prediction
This matchup has a clear stylistic tension. Illinois State rebounds better and has enough shot-making to punish mistakes, while Dayton is more disruptive defensively, forces steals at a higher rate, and has been solid at turning games in the second half. The Redbirds will try to keep this close with physicality and timely 3-point shooting. The Flyers will try to pressure the ball, protect home court, and make Illinois State execute through long half-court possessions.
Walker is the tone-setter for Illinois State, with 13.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while Kinziger adds 11.6 points and 3.3 assists. Skunberg gives the Redbirds another reliable scorer and floor spacer, and Pence adds versatility as a frontcourt scorer. Dayton counters with Bennett at 16.3 points per game, Montgomery at 13.6, and L'Etang at 12.0 points and 5.9 rebounds, giving the Flyers more than one way to attack if the first option is taken away.
The biggest edge for Dayton may be game control. Illinois State has already shown it can survive a tense finish, but Dayton has looked increasingly comfortable in this tournament, especially once it settles defensively and starts stacking stops. That matters in a quarterfinal where every empty possession feels bigger.
Illinois State vs. Dayton Best Bet
- Pick: Under 140.5 Points (-105) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dayton’s preferred style points this game toward a controlled, half-court script, and Illinois State is likely to cooperate rather than force a track meet. The Redbirds can score, but Dayton at home should be able to slow the game enough to keep the total below this number while finishing the job.
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