Texas vs. Purdue Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds for Thursday, March 26th
Texas is the only double-digit seed left standing after knocking off BYU and Gonzaga to reach the Sweet 16, while Purdue rolled past Queens before handling Miami to get here. The Boilermakers are favored again Thursday night, but the Longhorns have already shown they can survive against bigger brands in this tournament. Let’s check out the odds, recent results, and best bet for Texas vs. Purdue on March 26.
OC Staff - March 26, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadTexas vs. Purdue Prediction: Can the Longhorns Keep Their Cinderella Run Going in the Sweet 16?
Texas has been the surprise of the bracket. The Longhorns were one of the last at-large teams in, then beat BYU in the first round and Gonzaga in the second to become the only double-digit seed still alive heading into the Sweet 16. Purdue, meanwhile, has looked like a team comfortable in this setting again, blasting Queens and then putting away Miami to reach its third straight Sweet 16.
This matchup is a great contrast in styles. Purdue wants to control tempo, execute in the half court, and let its veteran offense dictate the game. Texas is more dangerous when it can create stretches of chaos, speed things up a bit, and let its shot-makers play downhill. If the Longhorns can make this uncomfortable, they have already shown they can hang around. But if Purdue gets the game on its terms, the Boilermakers have the cleaner path.
Texas vs. Purdue Recent Results
Purdue is 29-8, 13-7 Big Ten and opened the tournament with a 104-71 rout of Queens. The Boilermakers followed that with a 79-69 win over Miami, getting 24 points from Fletcher Loyer and 19 points and nine rebounds from Trey Kaufman-Renn. Purdue has now reached the Sweet 16 for the third straight year.
Texas is 21-14, 9-9 SEC and has had one of the best tournament runs of any team left in the field. The Longhorns beat BYU 79-71 in the first round behind 23 points and 16 rebounds from Matas Vokietaitis, then took down Gonzaga 74-68 in the second round behind 17 points apiece from Jordan Pope and Vokietaitis. That win made Texas the first team in five years to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16.
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Texas vs. Purdue Odds
- Spread: Purdue -8 (-110), Texas +8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Purdue (-375), Texas (+310)
- Total: Over 147.5 (-108), Under 147.5 (-108)
Texas vs. Purdue Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, March 26th, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
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Texas vs. Purdue Preview, Injuries, Lineup News
Purdue comes into this game with the more established identity. The Boilermakers have one of the most efficient offenses left in the tournament and continue to lean on Braden Smith to organize everything, while Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer give them proven scoring punch. Their first two tournament wins also showed that Purdue does not need to play fast to put pressure on an opponent for 40 minutes.
Texas has played with much more freedom over the last week. The Longhorns got key scoring against BYU, then showed poise late against Gonzaga, which matters against a Purdue team that rarely beats itself. The biggest question is whether Texas can keep creating enough offense in the half court once Purdue settles the game down.
There is no major new injury storyline driving this matchup the way some other Sweet 16 games have been shaped. The biggest story here is form. Purdue looked sharp in two tournament wins, while Texas has become the bracket disruptor after surviving the First Four and carrying that momentum through opening weekend.
Texas vs. Purdue Prediction
Texas has already proven it can handle this stage, and the Longhorns have enough shot creation to make Purdue work. But this is a difficult matchup because Purdue is so comfortable playing from in front and so good at forcing opponents to execute deep into possessions. If the Boilermakers avoid sloppy stretches, they should be able to wear Texas down over time.
The Longhorns’ path is clear. They need perimeter shot-making, they need to avoid empty trips, and they need to keep this game from becoming a pure half-court clinic for Purdue. Texas has already beaten Gonzaga, so an upset would not be shocking. Still, Purdue’s offensive balance and tournament experience make the Boilermakers the more trustworthy side to advance.
Texas vs. Purdue Best Bet
- Pick: Trey Kaufman-Renn Under 18.5 Points (+100) Check out the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Our FairPlay AI gives Kaufman-Renn’s under a modest but playable edge, with a 55.5% model probability against a 50.0% market-implied probability, good for a 10.9% expected value edge. Texas has enough size and physicality to keep this from turning into an easy interior scoring night, and Purdue has enough other options that Kaufman-Renn does not need to force offense.
This also fits the likely game script. Purdue can win this matchup with balance, not necessarily with one monster scoring performance. If the Boilermakers control tempo and spread the production across Smith, Loyer, and the rest of the rotation, Kaufman-Renn staying under 18.5 is the cleanest angle on the board.
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