UFC 283 Predictions: Riding Mauricio Ru, Jailton Almeida, and More With This Expert’s +276 Parlay

UFC 283 Predictions: Riding Mauricio Ru, Jailton Almeida, and More With This Expert’s +276 Parlay

The first pay-per-view of the year is here, and the UFC has set up a banger card in Brazil. As expected for a card in Brazil, there is at least one fighter from Brazil in each fight. With some of the fights tonight, it feels like the matchmakers almost purposely gave a layup to some of the fighters on this card to give the home crowd something to cheer for. I am hand-picking a few of these fights and throwing them in a parlay to get a nice cash out on the night. Let's break it down.

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UFC 283 Parlay Picks

Leg One: Mauricio Rua ML @ (+175)

This is the least "layup"-style leg of the parlay, as Rua is +175. However, the same premise still applies in that Rua could have gotten a much tougher matchup here. "Shogun" Rua is a former champ in the UFC, and he has fought some of the best fighters to ever enter the octagon, like Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida, Chuck Liddell, and Chael Sonnen (many more as well). If Shogun has one distinct advantage in this fight, it is his vast experience in the octagon.

Shogun has made it known that this is his retirement fight, which usually is not a good thing when a fighter comes into a fight knowing it is his last, but I really think Shogun will push to end his career on a high note after two back-to-back losses. The UFC is undoubtedly helping him a little bit with this matchmaking.

On the other side, Ihor Potieria is fighting in the UFC for the second time and is entering a stoppage loss to Nicolae Negumereanu. While Potieria is the younger and more explosive fighter, he has not shown me anything that warrants this price tag against Shogun. People see a retiring, 41-year-old fighter on his way out against a 19-3 young fighter, and that is what has created this price tag. However, Shogun has a vast edge in experience, and he can certainly point fight his way to a win here. I like him as a parlay piece today.

Leg Two: Josiane Nunes ML @ (-550)

These next two are definite layups. I had to throw Shogun in here to increase the odds, but just these next two have virtually no chance of losing in my eyes.

Josiane Nunes is 9-1 in her career, and her only loss was early in her career against Taila Santos, who had just fought Valentina Schevchenko for the belt. Nunes is a short, stalky fighter who makes up for her lack of height with her immense power. She hits like she has bricks for fists, and she has finished seven of her nine wins. In her UFC debut, she came out against Bea Malecki and absolutely demolished her, winning by stoppage in the first round. Her opponent tonight will be Zarah Fairn.

Zarah Fairn enters this fight with a 6-4 record and has lost back-to-back fights. She made her UFC debut in 2019 against Megan Anderson and lost by submission in the first round. Then, she lost to Felicia Spencer in the first round in 2020. She hasn't fought now in nearly three years, and both of her UFC fights have been stoppage losses. Now, she comes back off her layoff to fight a heavy hitter in Josiane Nunes, who has finished almost all her wins, and she faces her in Brazil. Tell me this isn't a setup from the UFC.

Leg Three: Jailton Almeida by KO/TKO or Submission @ (-800)

Speaking of setups, Almeida might be the most obvious one on the card. It is essentially the male version of the Nunes/Fairn fight. Almeida is 17-2 in his career with 17 finishes. He is 3-0 in the UFC, with a knockout and two submissions. All three wins have also come in the first round. Almeida is entering his prime at 31 years old, and he is quickly moving up the ladder at heavyweight. Across the octagon will be Shamil Abdurakhimov.

Abdurakhimov is ranked #15 in the heavyweight division despite a suspect record. Shamil is 5-5 in the UFC, but only one of his wins (Marcin Tybura) was worth substantial credit. Since that win, Shamil is 0-3 with three stoppage losses to Curtis Blaydes, Chris Daukaus, and Sergei Pavlovich. All five of Shamil's UFC losses have been by stoppage, and he is now facing a Brazilian with a 100% finish rate who has not seen the second round yet in the UFC. This is 100% a setup for Almeida to enter the rankings, and the odds suggest the same. Even his inside-the-distance prop is at -800, but it's good parlay material.

Three-Leg Brazilian Parlay @ (+276) Bet $100 to collect $376. DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

• Leg One: Mauricio Rua ML
• Leg Two: Josiane Nunes ML
• Leg Three: Jailton Almeida by KO/TKO or Submission

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