Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - Picks, Odds, Prediction & Fight Preview
Jake Paul takes on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in a highly anticipated cruiserweight boxing match on June 28. Get the latest fight odds, expert betting predictions, punch stats, and pick from handicapper Matt MacKay. Find out where to watch Paul vs. Chavez Jr. and the best bets for this DAZN PPV showdown.
Matt MacKay - June 28, 2025, 2:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadJake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Fight Odds, Betting Preview, Pick:
The boxing world awaits Saturday night's highly anticipated fight between Jake Paul and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. from the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. Paul's making his first appearance in the ring since beating Mike Tyson via unanimous decision back in November.
Oddsmakers are currently bullish on Paul, who is a short -575 moneyline favorite to beat the former WBC middleweight champion. Chavez Jr. won his last fight in July 2024 via unanimous decision against former UFC fighter, Uriah Hall.
Saturday's fight is a 10-round cruiserweight bout. Each fighter has weighed in at 200 pounds, with Chavez Jr. fighting above his standard weight. Paul is 11 years younger than Chavez Jr., while both fighters deploy an orthodox stance.
Handicapper Matt MacKay is here to preview this upcoming fight between Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. with the latest odds, including his favorite pick to place. Follow Matt's X account for more betting analysis and free picks.
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JAKE PAUL VS. JULIO CESAR CHAVEZ JR. FIGHT TIME, ODDS, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date - Saturday, June 28, 2025
- Game Time - 11:00 p.m. ET
- Where - Honda Center - Anaheim, California
- Where to Watch - DAZN PPV Odds
Here's how the odds shake out for the fight:
Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
Jake Paul | -575 |
Draw | +1600 |
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. | +450 |
Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Fight Preview and Pick
Jake Paul's last fight against Mike Tyson lacked entertainment value. Paul won via unanimous decision and neither fighter engaged in a memorable flurry of jabs. This time, Chavez Jr., who is much younger than Tyson at 39 years old, could give Paul a bigger test inside the ring.
The only loss Paul has taken in the ring came against Tommy Fury. In his 12 professional boxing fights, the 28-year-old is 11-1 SU with 7 KOs. Chavez Jr. is 54-6-1 with 34 KOs but measures three inches shorter than Paul with a 73-inch reach.
Let's take a look at punch data to best predict how this fight will go in Anaheim on Saturday night. Paul has a total average of 37.1 punches thrown per round, with 12 landing and 3.1 body punches.
Chavez Jr.'s highly-decorated boxing career, with the Mexican fighter peaking between 2008 and 2016, means that he's fought five times the number of opponents in comparison to Paul. As a result, Chavez Jr. averages 21.8 punches thrown per round, although he's sitting at 4.1 body punches landed per round.
Chavez Jr. holds a 50 percent body landed ratio with his punches, compared to Paul's 24.4 percent ratio. Paul, a famous YouTuber turned boxer, is jab-heavy, averaging 20.4 per round and landing 4.4. Chavez Jr. has an average of 7.4 jabs thrown per round, landing 2.1.
Power metrics also favor the younger fighter, Paul, in this match. He's 16.8 in power average thrown per round, with Chavez Jr. at 14.4. The 39-year-old Mexican fighter does have an advantage in percentage of body landed ratio at 28.4 percent, with Paul sitting at 21.6 percent.
From a betting standpoint, Paul's -575 moneyline odds are off the table. His outright winner price is way too juiced, so we need to pivot to other betting markets.
Paul's fights tend to go the distance, meaning he could be in for another long boxing match against Chavez Jr. at the Honda Center on Saturday night. The 28-year-old has done this in four of his six previous fights, while the former WBC middleweight champion has gone the distance in three consecutive fights.
Paul's conditioning and bigger frame should be able to absorb the inevitable body blows from Chavez Jr. during this fight. The question becomes whether or not the 39-year-old can weather Paul's aggressive jabs for 10 rounds while fighting above weight.
Ultimately, I think we'll see Paul and Chavez Jr. go the distance, which is currently the favored line at -134 odds. We can get plus odds (+125) on this fight not going the distance. However, I'm hesitant to back this outcome based on how lackluster Paul's fight turned out to be against Tyson.
Let's bet one unit on Saturday's DZN PPV fight between Jake Paul and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. to go the distance at -134 odds.
- Pick: Will Fight Go The Distance?: Yes (-134)
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