Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Prediction: Expect Fireworks at UFC 290
UFC 290 brings us Brandon Moreno taking on Alexandre Pantoja in the main card. Ben Rajavuori explains why you should expect fireworks with this electrifying co-main event on Saturday.
Ben Rajavuori
| 7 min
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Prediction: Expect Fireworks at UFC 290
UFC 290 brings us an electrifying co-main event as reigning champion Brandon Moreno defends his flyweight title against the contender Alexandre Pantoja. Despite the anticipation surrounding this matchup, other fights on the card seem to overshadow the fight. However, do not overlook this fight because both men are killers, and this is going to be an absolute banger inside the Octagon. Moreno is a decent favorite at around -220 right now, depending on where you look.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja UFC 290 Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: PPV
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Prediction
Brandon Moreno enters the fight with an impressive professional record of 21-6-2, including five wins by knockout and 11 by submission. This will be Moreno's sixth consecutive title fight, showcasing his dominance in the flyweight division. The last three wins for Moreno have all been stoppage wins, showcasing his devastating finishing ability in the octagon.
His opponent, Alexandre Pantoja, holds a record of 25-5, with eight wins by knockout and ten by submission. Despite never having fought for the belt, Pantoja has been on a winning streak, defeating the likes of Manel Kape, Brandon Royval, and Alex Perez. Interestingly, Pantoja has previously faced Moreno twice and won on both occasions, yet he still is a sizeable underdog in this matchup.
When analyzing their previous encounters, it's easy to see that both fighters have considerably improved their skill sets since their last meeting. While still throwing wider strikes than Pantoja, Moreno has honed his tactics to set up combinations more effectively. His striking has made significant strides and has enhanced his overall game. However, Pantoja has shown an ability to read Moreno's distance and timing, exploiting any inconsistencies in Moreno's approach. Pantoja's adeptness at countering Moreno's strikes, particularly his left low kick, could pose a challenge for the champion.
Pantoja excels in maintaining his range when leading the fight. Utilizing boxing, framing off opponents, and knees to keep them at bay, Pantoja's tools may be less diverse than Moreno's, but his timing and precision are top-notch. Pantoja has displayed a more aggressive style in recent performances, driven by his desire to earn a title shot. However, considering Moreno's exceptional cardio, pacing himself over a five-round fight will be crucial. While Pantoja may enjoy early success, I expect that Moreno's stamina will prove a bit better as the fight progresses.
In addition to his striking prowess, Moreno has significantly improved his wrestling and submission defense. His ability to time takedowns and defend against submissions has become a formidable aspect of his game. Although Pantoja is also a skilled jiu-jitsu practitioner, Moreno holds the advantage in takedowns. However, Pantoja's scrambling proficiency and ability to find his opponents' backs make him a threat in any ground battle. If Pantoja can't secure a finishing position, his constant adjustments and back riding can drain his energy over time. Moreno's resilience and hard-to-finish nature add another layer of complexity to the matchup.
I think that Moreno will come out with a high level of intensity from the opening bell, while Pantoja may attempt to slow down the pace and capitalize on opportune moments. That sounds backward, considering Pantoja is the challenger, but that's just how Moreno is. Pantoja's timing and power could earn him Moreno's respect if the champion becomes careless. However, Moreno's body kicks, and feints may serve as effective tools to get Pantoja moving. Pantoja's main problem lies in balancing early dominance with energy preservation for the later rounds. Whether Moreno wins by outworking a conservative Pantoja or mounts a comeback from early adversity, the odds lean in favor of Moreno unless Pantoja secures a decisive victory or stops him for the first time in his career. The latter may be possible, as Moreno has proven to be durable, but no man has had more success against him than Pantoja.
Either way, this fight between Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja promises to be an exhilarating matchup. I do think Moreno will win, but the line is a bit wide for my liking. Instead, my favorite bet is for the fight to end inside the distance. Both men are durable, but both men also possess multiple laths to a finish in this fight. Either one could honestly sub the other, and I could even see a finish by body strikes. It is five rounds, and we have seen some crazy title fights lately. A crazy Pantoja finish wouldn't surprise me, but my guess is a Moreno submission, given that this fight could be on the ground often.
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja Pick
Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance -112 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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