Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Prediction: Can Du Plessis Make a Statement at UFC 290?
Robert Whittaker faces off against Dricus Du Plessis this Saturday. Can Du Plessis make a statement at UFC 290? UFC betting expert Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - July 7, 2023, 4:54 PM EDT
7 minRobert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Prediction: Can Du Plessis Make a Statement at UFC 290?
Right before two championship bouts at UFC 290, we have a showdown between two ranked middleweights, Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis. Whittaker, with his impressive track record and only two losses in the octagon in his last 15, is undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with. However, Du Plessis, an up-and-coming prospect, has shown immense potential and a knack for finishing fights. With both fighters bringing their unique strengths to the table, this promises to be a thrilling contest. However, the books don't see it being all that close, with Whittaker currently sitting as around a -400 favorite. Should the line be that wide?
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis UFC 290 Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: PPV
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Prediction
A former champion, Whittaker boasts an impressive 25-6 professional record, including ten knockouts and five submissions. His dominance in the middleweight division has been evident with a stellar 13-2 run inside the octagon since 2014. The Australian fighter's only two losses came at the hands of the current middleweight king, Israel Adesanya. Whittaker's ability to blend precise striking with excellent grappling has made him a tough outing for any fighter in the division.
On the other side, the South African powerhouse, Dricus Du Plessis, is riding a wave of success with an impressive 19-2 professional record. Since joining the UFC, Du Plessis has been unstoppable, boasting a perfect 5-0 record inside the octagon. Four of those victories came by way of stoppage, showcasing his devastating power and well-rounded skill set. With eight wins by knockout and ten by submission, Du Plessis has proven dangerous in both striking and grappling exchanges.
While Whittaker and Du Plessis share certain similarities in terms of their well-roundedness, there are key differences in their fighting styles. Whittaker relies on his elite speed, technical movements, and high fight IQ to dominate his opponents. Du Plessis, on the other hand, leans more on his physical prowess, often overpowering his opponents with his brute strength. However, as seen in his fight against Brad Tavares, Du Plessis can struggle against opponents who possess superior technical abilities in striking and grappling. Du Plessis is still only 29 and five fights into his UFC career, so this is bound to change.
Considering Whittaker's experience and technical advantage, it is expected that he will be able to mitigate Du Plessis' physical advantages. Whittaker's ability to control the distance and time of his strikes with precision could prove to be the deciding factor in this matchup. While Du Plessis' striking style is unorthodox and possesses significant power, he often leaves openings and tends to tire as the fight progresses.
Despite Du Plessis' recent success in the UFC, defeating ranked-caliber opponents, it's hard to ignore Whittaker's track record. Whittaker's dominance over the middleweight division and his ability to adapt to different opponents make him nearly unstoppable.
Considering all these factors, the pick for this fight is Dricus Du Plessis, based on the price, to win inside the distance. I think if this fight played out ten times, Whittaker would win 7. In all three of the wins for Du Plessis, he stops Whittaker. If this fight goes to a decision, I'm pretty confident that means Whittaker won the fight. Du Plessis needs to stop this fight in round one or early round two, and I do think he can.
Given that Du Plessis inside the distance is +400, that gives us a decent amount of value. The implied probability of a +400 is 20%, and I think he should be closer to 30% for inside the distance, so I'm playing this solely based on the value. Whittaker has not lost to anyone besides Israel Adesanya since 2014, but Du Plessis is a promising prospect with a high finishing upside.
Robert Whittaker vs. Dricus Du Plessis Pick
Pick: Dricus Du Plessis Wins Inside the Distance +400 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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