Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Prediction: Can Paul Craig Get it Done at UFC Fight Night?
Paul Craig and Andre Muniz are set to face off in a thrilling UFC showdown this Saturday. Can Paul Craig get it done at UFC Fight Night? UFC handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks down this fight.
Ben Rajavuori
| 5 min
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Prediction: Can Paul Craig Get it Done at UFC Fight Night?
In what promises to be an exciting fight, Paul Craig and Andre Muniz are set to face off in a thrilling UFC showdown on the London card this weekend. Both fighters bring their grappling expertise to the cage, and fans can expect a fight on the mats between these two. Andre Muniz is a hefty -220 favorite, but does he deserve to be that favored?
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Date, Time, Where to Watch
Date: July 22, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Where: O2 Arena (ENG), London, England
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Prediction
Paul Craig's fighting style has been a rollercoaster ride, with wins over top-tier fighters and losses to lower-level opponents. Four fights ago, Paul Craig pulled off an insane upset TKO win over current champion Jamahal Hill after snapping his arm in a leg triangle. Then, two fights later, he loses a decision to Volkan Oezdemir. Paul Craig is an enigma, but he is an exciting one.
Known for his impressive submission victories over Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, and Nikita Krylov, Craig has showcased his exceptional grappling skills time and again. With a 16-6 career record, the Scottish fighter is allergic to decisions, as only one of his fights has ever gone the distance. His ability to finish fights in spectacular fashion has made him a thrilling fighter to watch, and of the 16 times he has had his hand raised, 13 have been submissions, and three have been knockouts. He has never won by decision.
On the other hand, Andre Muniz has carved out a name for himself as a power-based grappler with fifteen career submissions to his name. While his striking may seem slightly amateurish, Muniz possesses significant knockout power, evident from his previous match against Brendan Allen, where he held his own in the stand-up exchanges before succumbing on the ground.
When these two elite grapplers collide, it is almost without question that this will result in a grappling-heavy affair, with a tepid kickboxing match likely to ensue. Craig's expertise lies in his diverse and creative submission game, often luring opponents into his guard before launching his offensive submissions. In his fight against Jamahal Hill, Craig displayed his mastery, baiting Hill into his guard and expertly setting up a triangle choke from an unexpected position.
However, it's important to note that Craig's striking is not his strong suit. His kickboxing is more polished than his hands, and he often relies on getting the fight to the mat to secure a victory. Muniz, while also not an outstanding striker, will likely have a slight advantage on the feet and may seek opportunities to counterstrike effectively with his power.
I like Craig as an underdog, but only by one specific form of victory, and I bet you can guess it. Craig, to win by submission is +370 on FanDuel, and that line is insane to me. You are talking about a guy that literally lies on his back to get the fight to the ground while luring his opponents in against a guy that loves to grapple.
I was waiting to see the weigh-ins to see how Craig would come in, but he made weight at 186 pounds, and even though he didn't look great, he made weight, which is a problem for middleweights. Craig's frame allowed him to get submission after submission in the light heavyweight division, imagine his frame and strength at 185 pounds. Muniz is a more technical grappler, but I give the strength and "craziness" advantage to Craig.
Sure, Muniz has more paths to victory in this fight, but he's a -220 favorite for a reason. If you're going to give me +370 on as crazy of a guy as Paul Craig, who has as many submissions as he does, in a fight that will surely be grappling-heavy? I'm taking a stab at that all day long. Don't lay heavy cheddar on it, but I guarantee there will be at least a few moments where Craig has submission opportunities, and all we need is for him to finish one.
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Pick
Pick: Paul Craig by Submission +370 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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