Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction: Can Fiziev Bounce Back at UFC Vegas 79?
UFC Fight Night is on Saturday; Rafael Fiziev takes on Mateusz Gamrot in the main event. Can Fiziev bounce back at UFC Vegas 79? Ben Rajavuori answers.
Ben Rajavuori - September 22, 2023, 10:47 AM EDT
7 minRafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction: Can Fiziev Bounce Back at UFC Vegas 79?
Two talented lightweights square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night this weekend in Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot. These two warriors have solidified their places in the division's top ten and are looking to make a run at the title, and it all starts in a main event slot. This will be a classic striker versus grappler matchup, with Fiziev's explosive striking clashing with Gamrot's relentless wrestling and well-rounded skill set. Fiziev is the -155 favorite over at DraftKings at the time of writing.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 23, 2023
- Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction
Fiziev is, without a doubt, one of the most menacing strikers in the UFC. Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier are two of the hardest-hitting strikers in the lightweight division, and Fiziev is right up there with them. With a win over Gamrot, he would blaze into the top five and face potentially a top-three contender.
With an astonishing 75% finishing rate, Fiziev holds eight knockout victories and one submission in his professional career. His UFC resume includes knockouts against the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and Renato Moicano. However, his most recent outing saw him face the relentless Justin Gaethje, a fight in which he did lose but held his own against potentially the best striker at 155 pounds right now. Fiziev out-landed Gaethje in two of three rounds, but Gaethje edged it out with a takedown and damage. The loss ended Fiziev's six-fight win streak in the UFC, but it was not a loss I would hang my head over if I were Fiziev.
In the opposing corner stands Mateusz Gamrot, a man with relentless wrestling and grappling in the UFC's lightweight division. Gamrot relentlessly pursues takedowns and executes them with precision. Once he locks onto an opponent, there's little escape, and his chain wrestling keeps his opponent in constant danger of being taken down.
Gamrot's standout performance came against Arman Tsarukyan, where both fighters engaged in a grappling spectacle that showcased Gamrot's elite submission wrestling skills. Although Gamrot has yet to face a striker of Fiziev's caliber, his ability to control fights on the ground is undeniable.
Gamrot landed six total takedowns in that fight with Tsarukyan, which edged out the win. That now marks four fights in a row that Gamrot has landed four or more takedowns. However, the problem is that Gamrot has also been outstruck in those four fights as well.
Fiziev has faced some very good wrestlers/grapplers over his eight fights in the UFC, and his takedown defense has really held up. He has a 90% takedown defense in the UFC, and when he can keep fights on the feet, he tees off.
If Fiziev can stuff even a few of Gamrot's early takedown attempts, Gamrot is in trouble. Gamrot isn't horrible on the feet, but he will still be outclassed by Fiziev. Gamrot just fights too linearly and doesn't switch up his combos enough. Fiziev also lands with more power. Gamrot may land a takedown or two, but if he cannot land a takedown in two of three rounds, he will likely lose those two rounds.
Gamrot has now been knocked down in three straight fights, getting dropped by Arman Tsarukyan, Beneil Dariush, and Jalin Turner. Fiziev hits harder than all three. So, while Gamrot has not been knocked out yet, he has been chin-checked, and Fiziev is the hardest-hitting striker he will have faced yet. Given this, I have to take Fiziev because I think he will connect at some point in this fight and drop Gamrot. His takedown defense will be enough to get it done on Saturday night.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Pick
Pick: Rafael Fiziev ML -155 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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