Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC Fight Night in Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim is a massive favorite over Stephen Thompson at UFC Fight Night in Nashville. Can he win this fight with a quick submission? Jason Radowitz is targeting the method of victory in his Thompson vs. Bonfim prediction for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, July 12th.
Jason Radowitz - July 12, 2025, 5:00 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadStephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC Fight Night
Saturday's co-main event at UFC Fight Night in Bridgestone Arena will feature Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim in the welterweight division.
Thompson is getting up there in age. The 42-year-old welterweight has lost four of his last five fights, including last year's loss to Joaquin Buckley by knockout. This fight could be his final one at the UFC, especially if he losses again.
Meanwhile, he'll go to war against Gabriel Bonfim, who is 4-1 in the UFC. In his professional MMA career, he's only lost once. That was to Nicolas Dalby by knockout in 2023. However, he's responded with back-to-back wins over Ange Loosa and Khaos Williams.
Can the submission ace end Thompson's career for good?
Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for the UFC Fight Night co-main event between Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim.
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Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Odds
- Moneyline: Thompson (+325), Bonfim (-450)
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM ET (Main Card)
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for complete Thompson vs. Bonfim odds
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction
Gabriel Bonfim will be looking to get into the top ten of the welterweight rankings with a match against the Wonderboy.
You could say that Bonfim has been untested. After all, he hasn't faced many notable names in his short UFC career. But if he's able to beat Stephen Thompson, he'll surely start getting matchups against some of the top welterweights in the division.
Thompson's chin is declining. He's typically solid defensively, except for his grappling. Ultimately, he's aging, and his durability has taken a hit as a result. But he's still got a high IQ and can manage distance and lateral movement well. You've also got to watch out for his counter-striking.
That said, Bonfim is a terrific grappler and has plenty of power in his punches. He'll hunt submissions, as he's got eight of his last 15 wins via submission. In addition, Bonfim starts fast. Only one fight has brought him to the third round in his previous seven bouts.
If Bonfim puts the pressure on Thompson early, it's likely he'll be able to take advantage of a declining legend. Consider Bonfirm to win by submission at +120 odds.
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim Pick
- Pick: Gabriel Bonfim to win by Submission (+120) Click here for complete Thompson vs. Bonfim odds
MMA ODDS & PICKS
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