Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 324 for Lightweight Interim Title
Paddy The Baddy Pimblett has yet to lose in his 7-fight UFC career, but will face his toughest test yet against feisty veteran Justin Gaethje. Can Pimblett remain unbeaten in this lightweight interim title bout at UFC 324? Peter Alexis breaks down the Las Vegas main event on January 24th.
Peter Alexis - January 24, 2026, 10:15 PM EST
4 Minute ReadJustin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction: Can Paddy the Baddy Grab Lightweight Interim Title at UFC 324
The lightweight interim title is on the line in the UFC 324 main event as Paddy Pimblett takes the biggest step of his career against battle tested veteran Justin Gaethje. It is a fascinating clash of eras, hype versus legacy, and one of the most polarizing title fights the division has seen in years.
Pimblett enters as a sizable -245 favorite, a reflection of both his meteoric rise and the UFC’s confidence in the new generation. Since joining the promotion in 2021, he is a perfect 7-0, rapidly climbing to fifth in the division while becoming one of the sport’s biggest draws. His recent knockout of Michael Chandler in April cemented him as a legitimate contender rather than just a viral personality.
Gaethje, meanwhile, is no stranger to these moments. At 37 years old, he owns a 26-5 record and one of the most violent résumés in UFC history. He has won three of his last four fights, with his only recent loss coming against Max Holloway. This is likely one of Gaethje’s final chances to grab UFC gold, and he will not go quietly.
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Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
- Moneyline: Gaethje (+190), Pimblett (-230)
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
- Time: 11:30 PM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Gaethje vs. Pimblett odds
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction
The betting market clearly favors Pimblett, but Gaethje at +200 is not being dismissed entirely. That makes sense given Gaethje’s history of derailing hype trains. His pressure, leg kicks, and willingness to trade in chaos have undone plenty of younger, faster opponents before.
What makes this matchup so volatile is how rarely either fighter allows judges to get involved. Gaethje has gone to decision just five times in a career spanning more than a decade. Pimblett has seen the scorecards only twice in his seven UFC wins. Both are aggressive, forward moving finishers who look to end fights early rather than manage them.
Pimblett’s edge comes from youth, durability, and momentum. He absorbs damage better than Gaethje at this stage, mixes in grappling when needed, and has shown improving composure under pressure. If he lands clean early, the knockout is very much in play, with his KO prop sitting around +480.
Gaethje’s path is simpler and just as dangerous. He needs to turn this into a firefight immediately. Extended exchanges favor the younger man, but one clean Gaethje combination can still change everything. While his chin is no longer indestructible, his power remains elite, and Pimblett has been hittable in past fights.
Because of that shared volatility, the round total stands out far more than the moneyline. These are two fighters who do not waste time feeling each other out, and neither is built for a slow, tactical fight.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Pick
- Pick: Under 2.5 Total Rounds (-112) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook odds
With two aggressive knockout artists who rarely see the judges, the under offers the best value on the board. Pimblett by knockout at +480 is worth a small sprinkle, but the cleaner and more reliable angle is expecting violence early, regardless of which side lands first.
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