Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 325
Volkanovski will look to defend his title when he takes on Diego Lopes in Australia tonight. They'll battle in a UFC main card featherweight title rematch, with Volkanovski the favorite. Can he defend his title? McBets is backing Volkanovski in this UFC matchup.
McBets - January 31, 2026, 6:00 PM EST
4 Minute ReadAlexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 325
This rematch is fascinating because it sits right at the intersection of respect for an all time great and the reality of where both fighters are right now. Alexander Volkanovski deserves every ounce of credit he gets. He dominated the featherweight division for years and already owns a clear decision win over Diego Lopes. That history matters, but so does timing, trajectory, and the way the first fight actually played out beneath the surface.
Diego Lopes enters this rematch as the younger, bigger, and more dangerous athlete. He has a clear height and reach edge, carries significantly more one shot power, and remains the far more explosive finisher early in fights. That danger was not theoretical in the first meeting. Lopes dropped Volkanovski late in Round 2 and showed he has the kind of power that can change the fight instantly. That moment alone is critical when evaluating this line, especially given Volkanovski’s recent knockout losses and the cumulative damage he has taken over the last few years.
Volkanovski is still the superior minute winner and cleaner technical striker. His feints, footwork, and volume allowed him to largely control the first fight on the scorecards. However, watching that fight closely reveals something the stats alone do not fully capture. Volkanovski looked slower than his peak. His head stayed in the pocket longer than it used to, and he absorbed more clean counters than we are accustomed to seeing. Lopes did not need many openings to hurt him, and that remains the most important dynamic in this matchup.
Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for the UFC 325 main card battle of Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Odds
- Moneyline: Volkanovski (-140), Lopes (+125)
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Volkanovski vs. Lopes odds
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction
Lopes also answered several questions in that first fight. His cardio held up far better than expected across five rounds, even after extended grappling exchanges. His durability stood up to Volkanovski’s pressure and ground strikes. He did not break mentally or physically after losing early rounds, and that matters greatly in a rematch where adjustments are inevitable. Lopes has shown he can sustain chaos longer than many believed, which raises his ceiling significantly over 25 minutes.
Stylistically, Lopes should not be content to fight another outside kickboxing match while giving up volume. Expect him to force more aggressive exchanges, mix in his dangerous submission threats, and push the pace early where he is most lethal. Volkanovski has openly stated he wants to be more aggressive in this rematch, which could actually favor Lopes. More exchanges in the pocket increase the chances that Lopes lands something meaningful, and he only needs one clean moment to flip this fight.
The betting market movement tells an important story as well. Despite Volkanovski’s clear win in the first fight, the line has continued to drift toward Lopes. Models that incorporate age, durability, damage absorption, and finishing equity all see this matchup as much closer than the first meeting suggested. Lopes does not need to win minutes. He needs to create danger, and he has already proven he can do that against Volkanovski.
At plus money, you are backing the fighter with the physical advantages, the higher finishing upside, and a clearer path to a decisive moment. In a rematch where the champion’s margin for error appears thinner than ever, that is a bet worth taking.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Pick
- Pick: Diego Lopes ML (+125) Click here for complete Volkanovski vs. Lopes odds
MMA ODDS & PICKS
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