Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 325 Australia Lightweight Bout
New Zealander Dan Hooker will welcome Benoit Saint-Denis to his neck of the woods tonight in Sydney, Australia. Can Hooker pull a shock at UFC 325 and upset the younger Saint-Denis? Peter Alexis analyzes this Hooker vs. Saint-Denis matchup at UFC 325 and gives a best bet for Saturday, January 31st.
Peter Alexis - January 31, 2026, 6:30 PM EST
4 Minute ReadDan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction: Can Hooker Stun Saint-Denis in UFC 325 Lightweight Clash?
UFC 325 continues in Sydney with another bout that will feel like a homecoming, as Dan Hooker makes the walk in front of a heavily pro-Australasian crowd. While the event is technically in Australia, Hooker’s New Zealand roots guarantee plenty of support in the building. The problem for the veteran is that the matchup could not be much tougher. At 35 years old, Hooker enters as a sizable underdog against one of the most dangerous finishers in the lightweight division.
Benoit Saint Denis has quickly earned a reputation as a nightmare matchup for anyone willing to grapple with him. The 30 year old Frenchman owns a 16-3 record and has seen his odds climb steadily since opening around -350 and surging to -390 as the week has progressed. The betting market is clearly unimpressed by the hometown angle here, instead siding with youth, physicality, and a relentless submission game that has overwhelmed far more defensively sound fighters than Hooker.
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Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Odds
- Moneyline: Hooker (+310), Saint-Denis (-390)
Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
- Time: 10:45 PM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Hooker vs. Saint-Denis odds
Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction
Hooker’s toughness and durability have long defined his career. He is 24-13 overall and has been in countless wars against elite competition. Even at this stage, he remains dangerous on the feet, particularly early, and his experience cannot be ignored. Fighting closer to home should help his energy and confidence, and he will almost certainly look to keep this bout upright where his kickboxing gives him his best chance.
The issue is what happens once Saint Denis gets his hands on him. Saint Denis thrives in chaos, constantly pushing forward, forcing clinches, and dragging opponents into grappling exchanges they do not want. Hooker has shown heart and resilience, but he has also struggled historically when opponents can consistently pressure him and take away his striking rhythm. Over three rounds, avoiding the mat entirely is an extremely tall order.
Saint Denis is not just a strong grappler, he is elite at finding the finish. Eleven of his sixteen wins have come by submission, often after breaking opponents down with pace and physicality. Once he locks onto a choke, escapes become rare. Hooker’s defensive grappling will be tested immediately, and over the course of the fight, that pressure is likely to compound.
The best angle here is not simply backing the favorite, but backing how he wins. Hooker’s toughness should keep him competitive early, but it is hard to envision him surviving sustained grappling exchanges for the full fight. Best Bet: Benoit Saint Denis to win by submission at +140 odds.
Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis Pick
- Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis by Submission (+140) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook odds
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