Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC 333 Odds for Saturday, October 24th
Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili settle one of the defining bantamweight rivalries of the era when they meet for a third time with the UFC championship on the line. Can Dvalishvili rediscover the relentless pressure that overwhelmed Yan in their first meeting after the Russian champion completely reversed the matchup in December? Check out this Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction and best bet for Saturday, October 24.
Peter Alexis - October 24, 2026, 1:30 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadPetr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction: Can Merab Get Revenge on Yan in UFC 333 Co-Main Event?
Few trilogy fights enter with such dramatically different evidence from the first two meetings. Dvalishvili dominated their initial matchup in 2023, using relentless pressure and a record-setting volume of takedown attempts to sweep the scorecards.
Yan completely changed the story at UFC 323 in December 2025. He defended 27 of Dvalishvili’s 29 takedown attempts, consistently punished the body and won a clear unanimous decision to reclaim the bantamweight championship.
Saturday determines which version of the matchup is closer to reality.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Recent Results
Petr Yan (20-5)
Yan has won four consecutive fights after navigating the most difficult stretch of his career. Victories over Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo rebuilt his momentum before the rematch with Dvalishvili returned him to the championship.
His December performance may have been his most complete in years. Yan repeatedly denied Dvalishvili’s wrestling, punished him with body shots and won by scores of 49-46, 49-46 and 48-47.
Merab Dvalishvili (21-5)
Dvalishvili’s loss to Yan ended a 14-fight winning streak that had established him as one of the most dominant bantamweights in UFC history.
Before that defeat, Dvalishvili had produced a remarkable championship run. He defeated Sean O’Malley to win the title and successfully defended it against Umar Nurmagomedov, O’Malley and Cory Sandhagen during an extremely active 2025 schedule.
Saturday is his first fight since losing the belt, giving him more than 10 months to rest, prepare and make adjustments specifically for Yan.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Head to Head
The series is tied 1-1 entering the championship rubber match.
- December 6, 2025: Petr Yan defeated Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision
- March 11, 2023: Merab Dvalishvili defeated Petr Yan by unanimous decision
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Date, Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
- Main Card: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Streaming: Paramount+
- Scheduled Rounds: Five
- Championship: UFC Bantamweight Championship
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Odds
- Spread: Yan -5.5 (+130) | Dvalishvili +5.5 (-175)
- Total: Over 4.5 (-330) | Under 4.5 (+240)
- Moneyline: Yan -135 | Dvalishvili +114
Click here for complete UFC odds
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction
Yan’s performance in the second fight makes it difficult to casually assume Dvalishvili can revert to the original blueprint. Defending 27 of 29 takedowns over five rounds was not a small adjustment, and Yan consistently made Dvalishvili pay for failed entries.
There is an important difference entering the trilogy. Dvalishvili was attempting his fourth title defense during an extraordinarily active 2025 when he faced Yan in December. This time he enters rested, with nearly a full year to specifically address what went wrong.
That should allow Dvalishvili to return to the relentless pace that made the first fight so lopsided. He does not necessarily need a high takedown conversion rate if he can use attempts to force Yan backward, create clinch exchanges and prevent the champion from comfortably setting his feet.
Yan remains the cleaner striker and may again have significant success attacking the body. If he can reproduce his takedown defense from UFC 323, Dvalishvili will have difficulty winning enough rounds purely through pressure.
At plus money, however, the adjustment opportunity shifts the value toward the former champion. Dvalishvili has five-round conditioning, historic volume and a previous dominant win over Yan already on his résumé.
Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Best Bet
- Pick: Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline (+114) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Yan deservedly enters as the favorite after solving Dvalishvili in December, but +114 provides an attractive price on a fighter who dominated the first meeting and had built a 14-fight winning streak before the rematch. A fresher Dvalishvili should be better positioned to sustain his signature pressure and make the trilogy considerably different from UFC 323.
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