New Mexico State vs UTEP Prediction: Can Diego Pavia, New Mexico State Control the Pace is a Low Scoring Clash?
The New Mexico State Aggies travel on the road to the struggling UTEP Miners for a mid-week Conference USA clash. Can Aggies quarterback Diego Pavia control the pace of play in a lower scoring battle? Joey Ruiz gives his analysis and a New Mexico State vs. UTEP pick.
Joey Ruiz - October 18, 2023, 3:59 PM EDT
5 minNew Mexico State vs. UTEP Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
It has been a tough season for the Miners to this point as UTEP comes into this matchup with a record of 2-5 and only one win over an FBS opponent. Can they get their second win in a row against New Mexico State at home tonight? Let's break it down.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 18, 2023
- Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
New Mexico State vs. UTEP Odds
- Spread: New Mexico State -3 (-110), UTEP +3 (-110)
- Total Odds: O 47.5 (-110), U 47.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: New Mexico State (-155), UTEP (+140)
New Mexico State vs. UTEP Prediction
UTEP enters this game with a record of 2-5 after beating FIU last week in a game where they blitzed the Panthers as they went up 21-0 in the first quarter and never looked back as they won by a final score of 27-14.
On the season to this point, UTEP has greatly struggled on offense. They have had a lot of injuries at the quarterback position which has hindered their passing game, and their offensive line has not had much success at controlling the line of scrimmage either. To this point, UTEP is ranked 111th in yards per carry (3.3), 121st in completion percentage (52%), 92nd in yards per play (5.0), and 126th in points per play. Part of their offensive ineptitude this season has been due to their inability to convert 3rd downs and move the sticks as they are ranked 126th out of 133 FBS teams in 3rd down conversion rate as they are converting just 28% of their 3rd downs.
Things will not be any easier tonight for UTEP against a New Mexico State defense who has actually been well above average to this point. The aggies defense is currently ranked 44th in opponent points per play, 41st in opponent points per game, and 36th in opponent red zone scoring percentage. The Aggies have been a bit of a bend but don't break defense as they have given up a decent amount of yards but it has not translated into a lot of points allowed.
Their defense has also traveled quite well to this point too as they only allowed 20 points to Hawaii and 17 points to New Mexico in their two road games with a similar line dynamic to tonight's game. Another aspect to consider in this matchup is pace of play as these are two of the slowest teams in the nation when it comes to second per play and overall pace.
New Mexico State is ranked 126th in the country as they average 29.8 seconds per play and UTEP is not too far in front of them as they are ranked 97th as the Miners average 27.6 yards per play. As mentioned earlier, UTEP has also been dreadful on 3rd downs as they are only converting at 28% this season (126th) and New Mexico State is only converting 35% of their 3rd downs which is good for 95th in the country.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP Pick
So, we have two very slow teams who are both well below average on 3rd downs, who both run the ball at a well above average rate. On top of that, New Mexico State has a top-40 red zone defense. This is the perfect recipe for an under bet tonight, and I think this will be a lower scoring game than some anticipate. With that being said, I am rolling with the full game Under 47.5 at -108 for 1.5U in this Wednesday night matchup between UTEP and New Mexico State as my most confident College Football Play of the Day.
Pick: Under 47.5 -108 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Win a $50 Gift Card on College Football Saturday
Think you know what's going to happen in various games on College Football Saturday this week? Answer the pick questions below for your chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card!
College Football Odds
