Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Prediction: Can KJ Jefferson, Razorbacks Get Their First Conference Win?

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Prediction: Can KJ Jefferson, Razorbacks Get Their First Conference Win?

The 2-5 Arkansas Razorbacks host the 3-3 Mississippi State Bulldogs in their first conference game of the season from Fayetteville. While Arkansas was labeled the "home" team against Texas A&M three weeks ago, that game was played on a neutral field in Texas. Tomorrow, Arkansas finally gets its first home conference game in five weeks.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: October 21, 2023
• Game Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Prediction

Arkansas has opened conference play with an 0-4 record, losing to LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Alabama. On the other side, Mississippi State has also opened conference play winless, going 0-3 against LSU, South Carolina, and Alabama. While Arkansas has the worse record, they are 6.5-point favorites to beat the Bulldogs. Which team will get their first conference win tomorrow morning?

Arkansas has been through the gauntlet so far, playing the top four teams in the SEC West. They have now lost five games in a row, dating back to their loss against BYU, a tough non-conference opponent. However, they have had some close games against tough opponents. They lost to LSU on the road by three points as 17.5-point underdogs to open conference play. Two weeks ago, they lost at Ole Miss by a touchdown as 13-point underdogs. Last week, they nearly pulled off a comeback upset at Alabama, losing 21-24 as 19.5-point underdogs. While they have not won a conference game yet, they have had close games against tough opponents and have covered in three of their four conference losses. Arkansas ranks 10th in strength of schedule overall.

On the Mississippi State side, they are 3-3 thanks to some pretty easy scheduling. Their three wins came against Western Michigan, Arizona, and Southeastern Illinois. They also did not cover against Western Michigan or Arizona. They also have not covered in any of their SEC losses. They have failed to cover in five straight games, and now quarterback Will Rogers is questionable with an arm injury he suffered last week against Western Michigan. Backup Mike Wright may play in this one, and he is a transfer from Vanderbilt. Wright has struggled in college football and will not fare well against the Arkansas defense if Rogers cannot go. Even if Rogers does play, he will not be 100%.

Arkansas' record does not tell their whole story, and even at 2-5, they are a much better team than the Bulldogs, especially with a not 100% quarterback or potentially the backup. KJ Jefferson has played three ranked teams in the last four weeks, and he played well against Ole Miss and LSU in near losses outside of his two picks in each. He cleaned up the turnover last week and nearly led Arkansas to a comeback win on the road against Bama. I think Jefferson and the Razorbacks bring that second-half momentum into their first home SEC game of the season and beat the Bulldogs by at least a touchdown.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Pick

Pick: Arkansas -6.5 -110 Click here to see which sportbook has the best odds

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