Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction: Can Joe Milton, Volunteers Cover?
The No.11 Alabama Crimson Tide hosts the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers this Saturday. Can Joe Milton and the Volunteers cover? Ben Rajavuori shares his Tennessee vs. Alabama pick.
Ben Rajavuori - October 21, 2023, 10:30 AM EDT
7 minTennessee vs. Alabama Prediction: Can Joe Milton, Volunteers Cover?
No.11 Alabama looks to move to 7-1 this week when they host No. 17 Tennessee in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has had some close calls this season, but they are still 6-1, with their lone loss coming to Texas. Tennessee bounced back from an opening conference loss on the road against a savvy Florida team by beating South Carolina and Texas A&M to move to 2-1 in conference play. With Alabama having a few close calls this season, can Tennessee keep this one close enough to cover the 8.5-point spread?
Tennessee vs. Alabama Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 21, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Tennessee vs. Alabama Prediction
This year's Alabama team is one of the most questionable in a long time under Saban. Aside from shaky QB play and a less-than-usually top-tier defense, one of the more surprising aspects of Alabama's play has been penalties. Alabama is averaging seven penalties per game this season, which ranks 97th in FBS. Perhaps this is why Saban looks like a vein is about to pop on the sideline of basically every game this year. He is usually an intense coach, but this year, especially with all the flags, he has been even more on fire than usual. Even in the closing seconds of the Arkansas game when Alabama was lined up in victory formation, Saban was still fuming on the sidelines from mistakes that made that a closer game than it should have been. That has been the storyline for me with Bama this season - games are looking closer than they should for a normal Alabama team.
They are coming off a three-point win as 19.5-point favorites. They only beat South Florida by 14 as 34.5-point favorites. They lost outright to Texas as favorites. After their week one stomping of Middle Tennessee, Alabama is just 3-3 against the spread.
Part of this has been quarterback play. Alabama went from Jalen Hurts, to Mac Jones, to Bryce Young, to Jalen Milroe. Bryce Young just came in second in passing yards at Alabama and won the Heisman. Now, they have Milroe. Milroe is not a horrible quarterback, per se, but he has struggled and looked off at times. He can still hit big plays and hit open guys, but the X-factor just looks to be missing. He is averaging 232 passing yards per game and has a QB rating of 77 on the season. For Alabama to win these big games, Milroe has to be consistent and make good decisions.
For Tennessee, they also underwent some changes under center. They lost Hendon Hooker to the NFL, and Joe Milton is now under center for the Volunteers. Milton has been fine in the role, but he hasn't needed to be a star, because the rushing attack is the strength of this Vols offense.
The Volunteers rank seventh in yards per rush at 5.7, 6th in rush yards per game with 232, all while running the ball 40.8 times per game, which ranks 17th in FBS. There's no question that this Volunteers offense loves to move the ball on the ground, and they do it very well thanks to Jaylen Wright. Wright is fifth in the nation with 7.1 yards per carry amongst running backs with 80 or more carries. Wright has 571 rushing yards on the season with just 80 carries. Tennessee has had the luxury of being able to rest him in some blowouts, but when he is given a large workload, he does not disappoint. He has four games of 115+ rushing yards in his six games this season, and one of the misses he only had four attempts. He is coming off a 19-carry, 136-yard rushing game against Texas A&M, and he will be a presence in this game against Alabama.
What helps Wright get his yards is an excellent offensive line. The Tennessee offensive line ranks top-30 in line yards and 11th in stuff rate. This opens holes for Wright to burst through and do his damage on the ground. That is where this game will be won - in the trenches. On the other side, Tennessee has allowed only 3.1 yards per carry, and their defensive line is led by veteran seniors who are tough to block. Tyler Baron, Omari Thomas, and Omarr Norman-Lott will make life hell for the Alabama offensive line that is also down a starting guard.
Tennessee will win the battle in the trenches which will help them keep this game close and get pressure on Milroe often while blocking well and allowing Wright to do his thing on the ground and rack up possession time. With a spread as high as 8.5 points, Tennessee is covering even if they lose by a touchdown, and I see this game being very close. Alabama is getting some extra love here because of the Bama name and typical Saban line influence, but this team has looked very human this year with one of the worst quarterbacks to play for Bama in years. Tennessee covers here and is even on upset watch.
Tennessee vs. Alabama Pick
Pick: Tennessee +8.5 -110 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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