Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Panthers Slow Down Sam Hartman, Fighting Irish?
This weekend, Pittsburgh is in South Bend taking on Notre Dame. Can the Panthers slow down Sam Hartman and the Fighting Irish? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay answers with his prediction and pick for Pitt vs. Notre Dame.
Matt MacKay - October 23, 2023, 11:09 AM EDT
7 minPittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Panthers Slow Down Sam Hartman, Fighting Irish?
Pittsburgh and Notre Dame may not be in the same tier, but both teams have rattled off momentous wins recently, with Pitt beating Louisville for just its second win of the season. Meanwhile, Sam Hartman and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish just beat Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans 48-20 in a statement win following their losses to Ohio State and Louisville.
The Pitt Panthers are just 1-5-1 ATS this year, while cashing overs, going 5-2 against the point total line, while Notre Dame is 5-2-1 ATS and 4-4 against point total lines. Pitt is led by ninth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi, which prides itself historically on a hard-hitting defense and a run-centric offense. It's not much different in 2023, except the Panthers aren't winning nearly as much as they've grown accustomed to in recent years.
Notre Dame has some huge blemishes on its record this season, mainly its loss on the road against Louisville, which is the same team Pitt managed to beat outright as heavy home underdogs just a couple of weeks ago. The Fighting Irish also rely on a run-centric offense led by bruising RB1, Audric Estime, while Pitt has only averaged 3.4 YPC on offense this season, scoring just two rushing touchdowns in its last three games combined.
Oddsmakers are giving the Irish -17.5 ATS at home during a late afternoon kickoff against Pitt in Week 9. NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest prediction and pick for this matchup between two teams that are better than their records indicate, as the Pitt Panthers travel to South Bend to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Date, Time, and Where To Watch
- Date: Saturday, October 29, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: NBC
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +17.5 (-102), Notre Dame -17.5 (-120)
- Total Odds: Under 46.5 (-115), Over 46.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Pittsburgh (+660), Notre Dame (-1050)
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Injury Report
Pittsburgh
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Notre Dame
Questionable: N/A
Out: P Chris Salerno (Leg)
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Prediction
Notre Dame has won four of the past five head-to-head matchups against Pitt, with the only loss coming a decade ago in Pittsburgh. It's been all Notre Dame since then, and that shouldn't change much this weekend. Sam Hartman was a Heisman frontrunner for a bit, and remains a top NFL Draft prospect, brandishing a strong, accurate arm and elusiveness to extend plays outside of the pocket.
Pitt's defense is holding opponents to 24.6 points per game, ranked 64th in the FBS, while its offense under quarterback Christian Veilleux has been less than inspiring. Head coach Narduzzi made the change to Veilleux after Phil Jurkovec continually struggled to lead the Panthers' offense. It was Veilleux who led the Panthers on a second-half comeback against Louisville, which is the same team that managed to beat Notre Dame outright a couple of weeks ago.
The best way to attack Notre Dame's defense is on the ground, as the Irish have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in six consecutive games, including two rushing touchdowns in three of its past five matchups. However, Pitt attempted over 35 passes for the first time in 2023 last week against Wake Forest, losing a tight contest 21-17. Its run game has not been great, averaging under 3.5 YPC in three straight games, while its passing attack remains a bit underwhelming despite marginal improvement at quarterback.
Each of Notre Dame's last four home games against unranked opponents have gone over the total points line, which is currently set at 46.5 points, with -115 odds favoring the under. This is likely due to Pitt's anemic offense and porous run defense, which has allowed four consecutive games with at least two rushing touchdowns. Estime and the Irish shouldn't have much trouble in this game, however, we've seen Notre Dame be inconsistent following big wins this season.
The Irish have covered the spread in 10 of its last 11 games against ACC opponents, but they have scored 21 or fewer points in three of its past four games, excluding its 48 point burst against USC's 107th-ranked defense, which was two weeks ago. In a game with two good defenses and one lackluster offense, betting on the under to cash at 46.5 is the best investment to make.
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Pick
- Under 46.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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