Jacksonville State vs. FIU Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, Latest Odds
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are looking to keep their exciting first FBS season going as they take on the FIU Panthers on Wednesday night. Can coach Rich Rodriguez and the Gamecocks be trusted on the road? Joey Ruiz breaks down the X's and O's in his Jacksonville State vs. FIU pick.
Joey Ruiz - October 25, 2023, 5:16 PM EDT
5 minJacksonville State vs. FIU Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, Latest Odds
Jacksonville State pulled off a huge home win last week against Western Kentucky after erasing a 10-point first half deficit. Can they grab another win tonight against a very inconsistent Florida International team? Let's break it down.
Jacksonville State vs. FIU Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 25, 2023
- Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2
Jacksonville State vs. FIU Odds
- Spread: Jacksonville State -8.5 (-110), FIU +8.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 47.5 (-110), Over 47.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Jacksonville State (-385), FIU (+300)
Jacksonville State vs. FIU Prediction
Jacksonville State has had a somewhat seamless transition from FCS into FBS football as they are currently 6-2 on the season. Their only two losses came against Coastal Carolina on the road as 14.5-point underdogs, and at home to undefeated Liberty. Jacksonville State has had an interesting season as they have played in a lot of back-and-forth games to this point with some miraculous comebacks, like against Sam Houston State where they were down 21-7 at HT and then won 35-28 in OT, or against Middle Tennessee State where they were down 23-7 at halftime and then blew them out in the second half to win 45-30. The one constant that remains with this Jacksonville State team is that they are explosive on both sides of the ball, and are very capable of creating turnovers on defense or breaking a long TD on offense on any given play.
Jacksonville State's defense is what has been most impressive to me through eight games as they are currently ranked 20th in the country in opponent points per play (0.269), 24th in yards allowed per play (4.8), 18th in opponent yards per carry (3.1), and 31st in sack percentage. This Gamecock defensive unit is averaging 1.9 takeaways per game which is 19th in the country, and they have forced at least 1 turnover in each conference game this season including games against UTEP and Middle Tennessee State where they forced three and four turnovers respectively.
They get a very favorable matchup tonight against an FIU squad that is extremely inconsistent on offense. FIU is averaging 1.6 turnovers per game on offense (87th) and are only averaging 5.1 yards per play this season which is ranked 91st in the FBS. Even more concerning for FIU is their offensive line play as they are one of the worst pass blocking teams in the nation. The Panthers currently have an offensive sack percentage of 12.99% which is 129th out of 133 qualified FBS teams. FIU has been sacked a combined 22 times across their last four games against conference opponents for an average of over five sacks per game. A sack is basically a drive killer in today's college football, and the bottom line is that FIU's offensive line simply cannot give their QB enough time to make plays. They are also not the best run blocking group either as they are averaging 3.7 yards per rush (92nd) and are only averaging 123 rushing yards per game which is 94th in the nation.
On the defensive side of the ball, FIU is just as bad at stopping the run as they are allowing their opponents to rush for 5.0 yards per carry (109th in FBS), and are allowing a total of 190 rushing yards per game which is ranked 113th. Their secondary is also allowing a lot of explosive plays off play action due to their inability to stop the run as they are allowing 7.9 yards per passing attempt (96th) and as a whole, are allowing 450+ yards per game which is ranked 117th.
To me, this game is the ultimate mismatch. FIU has a very anemic offense with a weak rushing defense, and Jacksonville State has a very active defense that causes a lot of turnovers. Their offense is centered around a strong running game, which created opportunities for the play action pass. Last week against Western Kentucky, the Gamecocks put up 484 yards of total offense and outgained the Hilltoppers by nearly 150 yards as 8-point underdogs.
Jacksonville State should be able to move the sticks consistently on offense with their strong rushing attack, and I expect their defense to force multiple turnovers tonight with at least 3+ sacks that could lead to even more scoring opportunities for Jacksonville State. With that being said, I am rolling with Jacksonville State -8.5 at -110 odds for 1.5 units as my most confident college football play of the day for tonight's action.
Jacksonville State vs. FIU Prediction
Pick: Jacksonville State -8.5 -110 is currently the best odds Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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