Sam Houston State vs. UTEP Best Bet: Can John Gentry, Bearkats Get Off to a Hot Start with the Rushing Attack?
The Sam Houston State Bearkats are hosting the UTEP Miners and are prepared to battle for their first FBS win. Can the Bearkats take advantage of a weak UTEP defensive front and run their way to victory at home? Joey Ruiz breaks down the matchup with his UTEP vs. Sam Houston State best bet.
Joey Ruiz - October 25, 2023, 5:27 PM EDT
5 minUTEP vs. Sam Houston State Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, Latest Odds
Sam Houston State's transition to FBS has been a much tougher one than most people anticipated. They enter this matchup with UTEP with a record of 0-7 but they have had some heartbreaking losses this season. Can they finally grab their first win tonight? Let's break it down.
UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 25, 2023
- Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN 2
UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Odds
- Spread: UTEP +3 (-102), Sam Houston State -3 (-120)
- Total Odds: Under 37.5 (-110), Over 37.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: UTEP (+140), Sam Houston State (-170)
UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Prediction
Sam Houston State is still winless on the season, but it is not like they have been getting blown out in every game. They are probably one of the better 0-7 teams of all time if we are being honest as they kept the games somewhat close with BYU and Air Force and lost two excruciating games against FIU and Jacksonville State in overtime. In their game against Jacksonville State, they were actually leading 21-7 at halftime but allowed a game tying TD drive in the final seconds of the fourth quarter and then would eventually lose in OT.
One constant that has been emerging with Sam Houston State though is that they seem to play well in the first half of games, before losing steam in the second half or overtime. They were tied at the half against FIU, leading 21-7 at the half against Jacksonville State, and were only down 3-0 to Air Force going into their break, as their defense has actually played quite well at times.
Another comparison to this game is the matchup last night where New Mexico State went into Louisiana Tech as 3-point underdogs, much like UTEP is tonight. New Mexico State got down 16-3 early before storming back in the second half to win the game outright, and I think that this game will follow a similar game flow. We saw UTEP get absolutely obliterated by New Mexico State in the second half of their game last week, and I foresee them getting off to a slow start to follow up that second half performance.
UTEP's defense has also been very bad this season at stopping the run, which is Sam Houston State's weakness on offense. I actually think the Bearkats will be able to run the ball with some effectiveness tonight against a weak UTEP front seven. John Gentry will be the lead back for SHSU, and should be able to find some holes to get control of the game early. The Miners are allowing their opponents to run for 5.4 yards per carry this season, which is ranked 126th out of 133 qualified FBS teams. They are also allowing 7.9 yards per passing attempt this season which is ranked 91st in the country, so they are not defending the pass any better either. Overall, UTEP is allowing 6.1 yards per play (112th) and are allowing their opponents to convert 44% of their third downs on the year coming into tonight, which is ranked 101st in the country. UTEP has not been able to get off the field on third downs, and their red zone defense has been atrocious as they are allowing their opponents to score on 93% of their drives which is ranked 118th.
I am not sure if Sam Houston State will finish this game off with a win, but I do expect them to get off to a fast start tonight and take a lead into halftime against this very bad UTEP defense. With that being said, I am rolling with Sam Houston State first half ML at -150 odds for 1.5 units as one of my most confident college football plays of the day for tonight's action.
UTEP vs. Sam Houston State Pick
Pick: Sam Houston State 1H ML -150 is currently the best odds Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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