Michigan State vs. Minnesota Prediction: Can We Trust the Spartans to Cover?

Michigan State vs. Minnesota Prediction: Can We Trust the Spartans to Cover?

Today we have a very intriguing Big Ten matchup between the 2-5 Michigan State Spartans and a Minnesota team coming off a controversial upset win over Iowa last week. Can we trust the Spartans in Minnesota today? Let’s break it down.

Michigan State vs. Minnesota Date, Time and Where to Watch

• Date: October 28, 2023
• Time: 3:30 pm ET
• Where to Watch: Big Ten Network

Michigan State vs. Minnesota Prediction

Last week went very differently for these two teams as we saw Michigan State get absolutely blown out by Michigan by the score of 49 to 0 and then on the other side we saw an extremely low-scoring affair that Minnesota narrowly escaped with the win.

Even though Iowa nearly won on a punt return in the final minutes, Minnesota absolutely dominated this game as they gained more total yards than the Hawkeyes and averaged more yards per play. Minnesota dominated from a yardage standpoint but they were unable to punch a touchdown in as their 12 points came on four field goals, a few of which were basically handed to the Gophers on a silver platter after turnovers.

While this Iowa-Minnesota game was a low-scoring showdown, Michigan State was involved in a much different game as they lost 49-0 in a game that was never close against the Wolverines. While this was a tough loss for the Spartans, I do believe this is a solid spot for them to play up to their competition with Minnesota and a huge potential letdown spot for the Gophers.

We saw Michigan State go on the road a few weeks ago and play Iowa as they lost 26 to 16 but that game was much closer than the final score may indicate. In that game against Iowa, Michigan State actually outgained the Hawkeyes 349 to 222. Funny enough, the deciding score in that game was also a punt return by Iowa in the final minutes to put the game out of reach. This was a game in which Michigan State was either tied, leading, or within a touchdown for pretty much the whole afternoon until some late fourth-quarter miscues pushed the game a bit out of reach.

Then we take a look at their road game against Rutgers where they came out firing in the first half as they took a double-digit lead into halftime and also blew the game late but covered the spread for the game relatively easily as they never trailed until the fourth quarter. Michigan State’s run defense has actually been one of the better units in the Big Ten and in the country, especially on the road.

Michigan State is currently ranked 35th in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and 12th in yards allowed per carry on the road (2.7). Michigan State has only played in two road games to this point, but they came against Iowa and Rutgers, two teams who are very similar in terms of play style to Minnesota. Minnesota wants to run, run, run, and then run some more. They are not a huge passing offense with explosive plays down the field as they want to run the ball for three and four yards a carry and get into third and short to stay ahead of the sticks.

I really do not think they will be able to establish a solid ground game against this Michigan State front seven which has been fairly stout against the run against similar type opponents like Rutgers and Iowa. I very much see this game being closer to Minnesota’s first game of the season against Nebraska, where they were seven-point favorites and probably should have lost the game straight up If not for some late Nebraska miss cues. I believe Michigan State bounces back from their losing streak today and gets a straight-up win over Minnesota via their strong rushing defense, and I also think they force a few turnovers on that side of the ball as well to create opportunities for their offense. With that being said, I am rolling with MICHIGAN STATE +7 at -108 for 3U as my Most Confident College Football Play of the Day for today’s action as I think we see a great effort from the Spartans.

Michigan State vs. Minnesota Pick

• PICK: Michigan State +7 (-108) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds