Army vs. Air Force Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Falcons Put Up Points?
The Army Golden Knights travel this weekend to face the 8-0 No. 17 Air Force Falcons. Can the Falcons put up points? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his prediction and pick for Army vs. Air Force.
Matt MacKay - October 30, 2023, 9:34 AM EDT
5 minArmy vs. Air Force Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Falcons Put Up Points?
Two of our highly decorated military academies will face off against each other at Empower Stadium in Denver, Colorado in Week 10, as the Army Golden Knights travel to face the 8-0 Air Force Falcons.
Air Force is ranked No. 17 in the AP and relies on its run-centric scheme to rack up first downs, finish drives with touchdowns, and melting plenty of clock along the way. Army has a similar, yet less effective scheme, which has resulted in the Golden Knights scoring just 14 total points across their last three games played. The schedule needs to be considered, as Army did play Troy and LSU with a 93rd strength of schedule, compared to Air Force, whose schedule ranks 121 out of 133 FBS programs.
It's an exciting annual matchup that has seen Army win two of the past three games outright, but the Air Force Falcons have been dominating every opponent they've faced in 2023. Will the Golden Knights muster enough offense to challenge the Falcons? Or will Air Force continue winning by double-digit margins? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest prediction and pick for Army vs. Air Force.
Army vs. Air Force Date, Time, And Where To Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023
- Game Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Army vs. Air Force Odds
- Spread: Army +18.5 (-110), Air Force -18.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 34.5 (-115), Over 34.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: Army (+720), Air Force (-1200)
Army vs. Air Force Injury Report
Army
Questionable: WR Isaiah Alston (Ankle), QB Bryson Daily (Undisclosed), TE Joshua Lingenfelter (Undisclosed)
Out: QB Alex Meredith (Undisclosed)
Air Force
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Army vs. Air Force Prediction
While Air Force is undefeated at 8-0, they are 5-3 ATS. As expectations continue to rise for the Falcons, their ability to cover larger spreads has been challenged. Air Force has attempted nine or less passes in each game this season, while totaling at least 52 carries. Its potent rushing attack has resulted in a 5.2 YPC average this season, with an absurd 27 rushing touchdowns through eight games.
Army's defense may not be up to the task. The Golden Knights have allowed over 5.3 YPC in four consecutive games, surrendering 11 total rushing touchdowns during this recent stretch. Even UMass, which has the 99th-ranked offense in points per game, beat Army 21-14 last week, as the Golden Knights allowed them to complete over 73 percent of pass attempts and 6.2 YPC for three rushing touchdowns.
Air Force is laying -18.5 ATS at -110 odds, while the point total line favors under 34.5 at -115 odds. This implies oddsmakers believe that Air Force will rout Army in a low-scoring contest, as the Golden Knights have struggled to manufacture consistent offense. Air Force hasn't beat Army by more than six points across any of their previous five meetings. Point total lines are 4-4 between both teams this season, but due to the run-centric scheme deployed by each team, turnovers will be minimal and the clock will melt quickly.
It's a bit risky due to such a low point total line, but let's side with under 34.5 total points at -115 odds. Army has two total touchdowns in its past three games, while Air Force has scored 30 total points or less in its past two games. A potential 23-7 or 31-0 outcome is very likely, favoring Air Force, so instead of sweating the spread, let's place a unit on under 34.5 total points in a matchup that has historically gone under 34.5 total points in four of its past five.
Army vs. Air Force Pick
- Under 34.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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