NC State vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Thursday Night ACC Clash
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will host the unbeaten NC State Wolfpack on Thursday night in an early season ACC showdown. Can CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack avoid the upset on the road, or will Robby Ashford and the Deacs surprise oddsmakers? Let's take a look at this NC State vs. Wake Forest prediction for Thursday, September 11th.
OC Staff - September 11, 2025, 3:20 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNC State vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Thursday Night ACC Clash
The ACC takes center stage tonight as Wake Forest squares off with NC State in a clash of early-season unbeatens. Both programs enter confident after strong starts, and this matchup carries the weight of two teams trying to prove they belong in the conference title conversation. The spotlight is on the quarterbacks, with CJ Bailey leading the Wolfpack offense and Robby Ashford steering the Demon Deacons' attack. Each passer brings a different style, and whichever one can stay composed against an aggressive defense may decide the outcome.
With both sides still untested against top competition, this game serves as a valuable measuring stick in September. Bailey has shown poise pushing the ball downfield, while Ashford’s dual-threat ability has kept defenses off balance. The combination sets up an intriguing battle of playmakers that could swing with one or two explosive drives.
Oddsmakers see this as a tight contest with NC State favored by a touchdown, which makes finding value on the spread all the more important. In a conference where every win matters, tonight’s duel between Wake and State could go a long way in shaping the ACC race.
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NC State vs. Wake Forest Odds
NC State vs. Wake Forest Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Click here for complete NC State vs. Wake Forest odds
NC State vs. Wake Forest Prediction
The most glaring and potentially game-deciding clash will be Wake Forest's dual-threat quarterback, Robby Ashford, against the historically porous North Carolina State defense. Ashford isn't a volume passer, with projections of 10 completions on 16 attempts for 135.6 yards and 0.4 interceptions. Notably, our models indicate positive expected value on his 'Under 189.5 Passing Yards' prop at -110 odds, suggesting that his aerial output may be limited.
However, this isn't due to a lack of efficacy, but rather the overwhelming advantage he possesses with his legs. Ashford averages a robust 37.2 rushing yards per game, projected for 31.7 in this contest. He's facing an NC State run defense ranked an astonishing 180th in the nation in rush yards per carry allowed. Furthermore, the Wolfpack's pass defense isn't much better, coming in at 150th in QB Rating Allowed, and their pass rush is virtually non-existent at 233rd in sacks. This combination of a mobile quarterback meeting a defense that struggles profoundly against both the run and generating pressure could allow Ashford to control the game's pace without needing to air it out. If Ashford consistently picks up first downs with his scrambling, it will chew clock and limit his passing attempts, validating the 'Under' prop.
On the other side of the ball, the pivotal battle will be the entirety of the North Carolina State offense, led by CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers, attempting to crack the formidable Wake Forest defense. Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey is projected for 17 completions on 24 attempts for 233.4 yards, with 0.9 interceptions. His counterpart in the backfield, running back Hollywood Smothers, is projected for 15.7 carries and 93.0 rushing yards. However, they face a decidedly different defensive challenge than Wake Forest does. The Demon Deacons boast a top-tier defensive unit, ranking 26th against the run (rush yards per carry allowed), 17th against the pass (QB Rating Allowed), and 15th in sacks. This is a classic strength-on-strength matchup that heavily favors Wake Forest.
Our model has identified positive expected value on Bailey's 'Under 239.5 Passing Yards' (-110 odds, 11.0% EV) and Smothers' 'Under 93.5 Rushing Yards' (-114 odds, 7.3% EV). The Demon Deacons' ability to stop the run will force Bailey into passing situations against a strong pass rush and secondary. This pressure will likely cascade down to his receivers; even primary target Justin Joly, projected for 3.3 receptions and 31.6 yards, has a strong positive EV on his 'Under 45.5 Receiving Yards' prop (-113 odds, 42.5% EV). The sheer quality of the Wake Forest defense suggests that NC State will struggle to find consistent offensive rhythm, particularly through the air and on the ground.
While CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers will face an uphill battle against Wake Forest's top-20 defense, the most decisive factor in this contest will be Robby Ashford's legs exploiting North Carolina State's historically dreadful run defense. If the Wolfpack cannot contain Ashford's dual-threat capabilities, they will be unable to get off the field, their already weak defense will tire, and Wake Forest will dictate the tempo, allowing Ashford to manage the game effectively, even if his passing numbers remain modest. This imbalance at the point of attack is simply too significant to overcome.
NC State vs. Wake Forest Pick
- Pick: Wake Forest +7 (-103) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
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