TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction: Can Sam Leavitt, Sun Devils Take Down Ranked Horned Frogs?

The TCU Horned Frogs have opened the year 3-0 and are building confidence after a statement win over in-state rival SMU, pulling away for a double-digit victory last weekend. Their offense has started to find its rhythm, and their defense looks improved after some early concerns last year. Now ranked No. 24 in the country, the Frogs are hoping to cement themselves as legitimate Big 12 contenders by grabbing a road win in the desert on Friday night.

Arizona State, on the other hand, enters at 3-1 under head coach Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils rebounded quickly from an early setback against Mississippi State with a thrilling win over Baylor last week, capped by a last-second field goal. Despite opening the season ranked inside the top 11, ASU fell back out of the polls after the Mississippi State loss. A win here over a ranked opponent could vault them back into the national conversation. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has shown flashes, but the Sun Devils are still adjusting to life without Cam Skattebo, last year’s star who now suits up for the New York Giants.

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TCU vs. Arizona State Odds

TCU vs. Arizona State Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• Where to Watch: FOX

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TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction

Oddsmakers see Arizona State as the slight favorite at -3, a classic case of an unranked home team being favored over a ranked visitor. But our oddschecker+ projections tell a different story. TCU grades out as the better all-around squad, and that shows in the value of the betting markets. The Frogs’ moneyline comes in as a +EV play at 15.64%, making them one of the strongest positive-value bets of the week. Grabbing a 3-0 ranked team at plus odds, even on the road, is a rare opportunity that bettors will circle.

There’s also value on the spread. TCU +3 carries a 7.7% edge according to our models, suggesting that even if the Frogs fall short, they’re more likely than the odds imply to keep things within a field goal. Given TCU’s strong track record in tight road games and ASU’s inconsistency since last year, this number could prove to be too generous.

The big question will be whether TCU’s defense can contain Sam Leavitt and force him into mistakes. Without Skattebo, Arizona State has leaned heavily on Leavitt’s arm, and that puts added pressure on him against a defense that thrives on takeaways. If the Frogs can win the turnover battle, they not only cover but may very well pull the outright upset.

Bottom line: this game fits the profile of a live underdog spot. With TCU offering double-digit positive expected value on both the spread and moneyline, siding with the Horned Frogs is the sharp play in this Friday night Big 12 clash.

TCU vs. Arizona State Pick

• Pick: TCU +3 (-110) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

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