Navy vs. UAB Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Friday, September 25th
The Navy Midshipmen return from an open week for a Friday night American Conference road matchup against UAB at Protective Stadium. Can Braxton Woodson and one of the nation's most productive rushing attacks maintain Navy's recent dominance of the series against a Blazers team that has been much tougher at home? Check out this Navy vs. UAB prediction and best bet for Friday, September 25.
Peter Alexis - September 25, 2026, 4:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNavy vs. UAB Prediction: Can Navy Avoid Road Upset on Friday Night at UAB?
Navy heads to Birmingham for a 7:00 PM ET kickoff on ESPN as a seven-point favorite. The Midshipmen are 1-1 after having last weekend off, while UAB enters 1-2 following a 21-14 loss at Louisiana.
Navy has dominated this short series and owns major statistical advantages in the running game, but the market is asking the Midshipmen to win by more than a touchdown on the road. That number creates an interesting entry point on a UAB team that has shown more competitiveness than its record indicates under Alex Mortensen.
Navy vs. UAB Recent Results
Navy Midshipmen (1-1), (0-1 American)
Navy's first conference game ended in a 38-30 loss at Florida Atlantic. The Midshipmen still produced major rushing numbers, with Jackson Gutierrez reaching 100 yards, Woodson adding 96 and Jordan Collins rushing for another 68, but the secondary was repeatedly exposed as FAU quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw for 386 yards.
Navy remains No. 2 nationally in rushing offense at 376 yards per game and is averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Woodson alone is averaging 148 rushing yards, while the Midshipmen are also allowing only 40.5 rushing yards per game. Navy is coming off an 11-2 season in 2025, so the 1-1 start has not erased a strong recent program baseline.
UAB Blazers (1-2), (0-0 American)
UAB has alternated encouraging stretches with major offensive inconsistency. The Blazers produced 413 yards in a 42-23 opening loss at Illinois, then rushed for 266 yards and erased a 10-point second-half deficit to beat ULM 26-20.
Last week's 21-14 loss at Louisiana was much more difficult offensively. UAB managed only 218 total yards and 74 rushing yards, but the defense held Louisiana scoreless throughout the second half and forced a late turnover that gave the offense one final opportunity. The Blazers finished 4-8 overall and 2-6 in conference play last season.
Navy vs. UAB Head to Head
Navy is 3-0 against UAB and has won every meeting by at least 14 points.
- September 6, 2025: Navy 38, UAB 24
- September 28, 2024: Navy 41, UAB 18
- November 11, 2023: Navy 31, UAB 6
Last year's game was tied 24-24 at halftime before Navy shut UAB out in the second half and pulled away for a 38-24 victory. Three second-half UAB turnovers were critical to the separation, making ball security one of the clearest areas the Blazers must improve in the rematch.
Navy vs. UAB Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, September 25th, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
- How to Watch: ESPN
Navy vs. UAB Odds
- Spread: Navy -7 (-110), UAB +7 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 51.5 (-108), Under 51.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Navy (-278), UAB (+225)
Click here for the latest Navy vs. UAB Odds
Navy vs. UAB Line Movement and Betting Splits
The DraftKings spread split is essentially even by ticket count, but the money has leaned toward the home underdog. UAB +7 is taking 54% of the spread handle despite only 50% of the bets, while Navy has the other 46% of the money.
The moneyline discrepancy is substantially larger. Only 20% of outright-win bets are on UAB, yet the Blazers account for 73% of the moneyline handle. Navy has approximately 80% of the tickets but only 27% of the money. The total also shows unusually heavy handle on the Under.
Navy vs. UAB Prediction
The challenge for UAB starts with Navy's rushing offense. Woodson has been one of the most productive rushing quarterbacks in the country, and the Midshipmen have multiple players capable of taking advantage when a defense overplays the quarterback. Preparing for those reads requires discipline on every snap.
UAB's most recent defensive performance offers some encouragement. Louisiana did most of its damage in the first half before being shut out after halftime, and the Blazers forced a late fumble that kept the game alive. They now return home rather than playing a second consecutive road contest.
Offensively, the matchup is much more difficult. Navy has allowed only 40.5 rushing yards per game, while UAB has leaned heavily on Roderick Robinson II and Bam McReynolds when the offense has been at its best. The Blazers rushed for 266 yards in their lone victory but only 74 last week.
That means Ryder Burton will probably need to create more through the air than he did at Louisiana. Navy's loss to Florida Atlantic showed that this is possible. The Midshipmen surrendered 386 passing yards and 38 points, and their aggressiveness against the run can leave opportunities for explosive throws behind the front seven.
Navy's youth also adds volatility to a seven-point road spread. The Midshipmen remain one of the least experienced FBS teams by career snap count, and they have yet to force a takeaway through two games. A favorite laying a full touchdown benefits tremendously from short fields, and Navy has not created those opportunities yet.
The series history is the obvious concern. Navy has beaten UAB by 14, 23 and 25 points, and the Blazers have never demonstrated that they can consistently stop this offense. But getting a full seven changes the requirement. UAB does not need to solve Navy. It needs to avoid the second-half turnover avalanche that created separation last season and find a few passing explosives of its own.
The betting profile is also difficult to ignore. The majority of individual moneyline bets are on the obvious favorite, while a much larger share of actual money has landed on UAB. The same smaller discrepancy exists against the spread. That aligns with a game in which Navy can remain the more likely winner without necessarily producing another double-digit margin.
Navy vs. UAB Best Bet
- Best Bet: UAB +7 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Navy's rushing advantages are substantial, but seven points gives UAB protection at a key touchdown number in its own stadium. The Blazers' defense has shown the ability to settle into games, while Navy's vulnerable secondary creates a specific way for Burton to manufacture enough offense to remain within range.
The Midshipmen can control possession and extend their winning streak in the series without covering. If UAB protects the football better than it did in last year's matchup, a 27-23 or 30-24 Navy victory keeps the Blazers inside seven.
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