Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, September 26th
The No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish renew their in-state rivalry with Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium after opening the season with three convincing victories. Can Ryan Browne and Purdue's explosive passing game score enough against Notre Dame to keep the Boilermakers inside four touchdowns? Check out this Notre Dame vs. Purdue prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 26.
Peter Alexis - September 26, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
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Notre Dame enters West Lafayette at 3-0 after beating Michigan State 27-10, while Purdue is 1-2 following a 52-38 loss at UCLA. The Shillelagh Trophy rivalry kicks off at 2:00 PM ET on Peacock.
The Irish are nearly four-touchdown favorites, but Purdue's offensive production has been far better than its record. Browne threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns at UCLA, giving the Boilermakers a legitimate path to scoring enough for a late cover.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Recent Results
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0), (Independent)
Notre Dame improved to 3-0 with a 27-10 win over Michigan State, its lowest scoring output of the season but another comfortable defensive performance. The Irish had previously beaten Wisconsin and Rice, including a 52-0 shutout.
Notre Dame's defense has been the consistent piece. Even when the offense does not explode early, the Irish have controlled field position and prevented opponents from generating sustained scoring.
Purdue Boilermakers (1-2), (0-1 Big Ten)
Purdue lost 52-38 at UCLA but produced 488 total yards, including 425 through the air. Browne completed 19 of 30 passes for 378 yards and three touchdowns, while Xavier Townsend caught six passes for 162 yards and two scores.
The Boilermakers are only 1-2, but both losses came while scoring at least 36 points. That offensive improvement is the central reason taking four touchdowns is more appealing than Purdue's record suggests.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Head to Head
Saturday will be the 90th meeting between the rivals, with Notre Dame controlling the series in the modern era.
- September 20, 2025: Notre Dame 56, Purdue 30
- September 14, 2024: Notre Dame 66, Purdue 7
- September 18, 2021: Notre Dame 27, Purdue 13
- September 13, 2014: Notre Dame 30, Purdue 14
Notre Dame has created huge margins in the last two meetings, which explains the current spread. The difference is that this Purdue offense already looks far more capable of scoring than the unit that was overwhelmed in 2024.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 26th, 2026
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
- How to Watch: Peacock
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Odds
- Spread: Notre Dame -27.5 (-118), Purdue +27.5 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 58.5 (-105), Under 58.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Notre Dame (-4500), Purdue (+1700)
Click here for the latest Notre Dame vs. Purdue Odds
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Line Movement and Betting Splits
Notre Dame has attracted roughly 85% of DraftKings spread tickets and close to 80% of the handle around -27.5. The market has remained in the high 20s, with alternate +28 available at a more expensive price for Purdue.
The public expectation is clearly another Notre Dame blowout. That makes the extra half-point to +28 valuable because it protects a four-touchdown final margin.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction
Notre Dame's defensive front is the biggest obstacle. Purdue rushed for only 64 yards at UCLA and cannot afford to become that one-dimensional against the Irish.
But Browne showed he can still move an offense when the run game disappears. He threw for 378 yards against UCLA and repeatedly created explosive passes outside the numbers, even while the Boilermakers played from behind.
That style can be useful with four touchdowns in hand. Purdue does not need to sustain 12-play drives. A few explosive passes and red-zone touchdowns can keep the score within range even if Notre Dame controls possession.
The Irish also have no incentive to leave their starting offense on the field deep into the fourth quarter with a massive lead. If Notre Dame reaches something like 35-10 or 38-14, the final possessions can become much more favorable to Purdue.
Notre Dame's recent rivalry dominance remains the strongest concern. The Irish scored 56 and 66 in the last two meetings, so the ceiling for a blowout is obvious. Purdue must avoid turnovers that create defensive touchdowns or short fields.
The difference this year is that the Boilermakers are producing enough passing offense to punish backup defenders late. Getting +28 creates several routes to a cover even if Purdue never seriously threatens to win.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue Best Bet
- Best Bet: Purdue +28 (-115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Notre Dame should win comfortably, but Purdue has scored 36 and 38 in its two losses and now gets four full touchdowns at home. Browne's passing production creates a realistic backdoor path that previous Purdue teams did not have.
The public is overwhelmingly on Notre Dame, but a 45-20 or 42-17 type of Irish victory is still dominant while cashing Purdue +28.
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