Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Saturday, September 26th
The No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels travel to Gainesville for a ranked SEC matchup against No. 21 Florida, with both teams carrying unbeaten records into Week 4. Can Aaron Philo, Jadan Baugh and the Gators' explosive offense protect The Swamp against Trinidad Chambliss and an Ole Miss team coming off an emotional win over LSU? Check out this Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction and best bet for Saturday, September 26.
Peter Alexis - September 26, 2026, 1:15 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadOle Miss vs. Florida Prediction: Can Jadan Baugh, Florida Outlast Ole Miss in SEC Battle?
Ole Miss and Florida are both 3-0 and 1-0 in SEC play entering a 3:30 PM ET kickoff on ABC. The Rebels just beat LSU 32-24, while Florida survived a 44-39 road game at Auburn.
Florida is laying around a field goal despite Ole Miss carrying the higher ranking. Home field, Florida's rushing attack and a possible shoulder issue for Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy all add intrigue to a market where most bettors have been backing the road underdog.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Recent Results
Ole Miss Rebels (3-0), (1-0 SEC)
Ole Miss climbed to No. 4 after beating LSU 32-24, giving Pete Golding another ranked victory and establishing the Rebels as one of the early SEC contenders.
Lacy left that game with a shoulder injury after rushing for 43 yards and a touchdown. His status is worth monitoring because Florida's defense will have more flexibility if the Rebels lose part of their rushing rotation.
Florida Gators (3-0), (1-0 SEC)
Florida remained unbeaten with a 44-39 road win over Auburn in its SEC opener. The Gators have averaged 54 points per game through three weeks, while Baugh has already rushed for 458 yards and eight touchdowns.
The offense has been balanced enough that opponents cannot simply load the box against Baugh. Philo has settled quickly into the system, and Florida now returns to Gainesville after proving it can win a high-pressure conference road game.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Head to Head
The all-time series is tied 13-13-1, with the teams splitting the last two meetings.
- November 15, 2025: Ole Miss 34, Florida 24
- November 23, 2024: Florida 24, Ole Miss 17
- September 26, 2020: Florida 51, Ole Miss 35
- October 3, 2015: Florida 38, Ole Miss 10
Florida's 2024 upset in Gainesville is particularly relevant because The Swamp has repeatedly made this matchup difficult for highly ranked Ole Miss teams. The Rebels have not won in Gainesville since 2008.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 26th, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
- How to Watch: ABC
Ole Miss vs. Florida Odds
- Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 (-120), Florida -3.5 (+100)
- Total Points: Over 58.5 (-115), Under 58.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Ole Miss (+124), Florida (-148)
Click here for the latest Ole Miss vs. Florida Odds
Ole Miss vs. Florida Line Movement and Betting Splits
Florida opened around -2.5 and has traded between -3 and -3.5, making the flat -3 (-115) price especially valuable compared with laying the hook.
The betting splits are strongly against Florida. DraftKings has roughly three-quarters of spread bets and close to 90% of the spread handle on Ole Miss. That makes the Gators a clear contrarian position despite being the home favorite.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction
Ole Miss deserves its top-five ranking. The Rebels just beat LSU and have an explosive passing game capable of punishing any secondary that cannot generate pressure.
Florida's advantage begins on the ground. Baugh has rushed for 458 yards and eight touchdowns already, allowing the Gators to dictate down-and-distance rather than asking Philo to win every possession through the air.
That rushing production becomes even more valuable in Gainesville. Florida can shorten possessions, keep Ole Miss' offense on the sideline and force the Rebels to defend physically for four quarters.
The potential Lacy limitation matters on the other side. Ole Miss does not become one-dimensional without him, but the Rebels are more difficult to defend when their rushing game demands equal attention. If Florida can create predictable passing downs, the home crowd becomes much more influential.
The market position is uncomfortable because the majority of both tickets and handle are backing Ole Miss. But the line has not collapsed toward the road team. Florida remains favored, and getting exactly -3 avoids the most dangerous part of the current market.
Florida also showed something important by winning at Auburn. The Gators did not need a perfect game or a favorable environment to survive 44-39. Returning home for an even bigger matchup should only strengthen the offensive advantage.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Best Bet
- Best Bet: Florida -3 (-115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ole Miss is attracting overwhelming betting support, but Florida gets home field, the stronger rushing production and a number that only requires the Gators to win by more than a field goal.
The flat -3 is significantly more appealing than -3.5. A 34-30 or 31-27 Florida victory fits a matchup where both offenses should produce but the Gators' running game becomes the most reliable late-game weapon.
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