Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Wednesday, October 28th
Kennesaw State travels to Murfreesboro for a Wednesday night Conference USA matchup against Middle Tennessee, with the Owls looking to snap a six-game losing streak against a Blue Raiders team gaining momentum. Can Rickie Collins and Kennesaw State's offense rediscover their rhythm against Roman Gagliano and a Middle Tennessee defense that has struggled to contain the run? Check out this Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction and best bet for Wednesday, October 28.
Peter Alexis - October 28, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadKennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction: Will Owls Finally Snap Losing Skid on Wednesday Night?
Kennesaw State (1-6, 0-3 CUSA) visits Middle Tennessee (4-3, 2-1 CUSA) at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium on Wednesday, October 28, with kickoff scheduled for 7 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. The Owls are coming off a disappointing 34-6 defeat against Liberty, while the Blue Raiders have won consecutive conference games against Delaware and FIU.
Middle Tennessee has made significant progress in its third season under Derek Mason, but its defense continues to allow substantial rushing production. Kennesaw State has struggled offensively after winning the Conference USA championship last season, although narrow losses against Jacksonville State and Missouri State suggest the Owls have been more competitive than their overall record indicates.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Recent Results
Kennesaw State Owls (1-6), (0-3 CUSA)
Kennesaw State suffered its sixth consecutive defeat with a 34-6 home loss against Liberty last Thursday. The Owls failed to score a touchdown and managed just 62 rushing yards, while their quarterbacks combined for 235 passing yards and two interceptions.
Starting quarterback Rickie Collins completed 15 of 26 passes for 124 yards and two interceptions before Landon Varnes entered in relief. Varnes completed nine of 15 attempts for 111 yards, but neither quarterback could lead a touchdown drive against Liberty's defense.
The Owls previously lost 24-21 at Missouri State on October 14, surrendering a game-winning field goal after competing throughout the contest. Kennesaw State generated 337 total yards but struggled to establish its rushing attack, finishing with just 77 yards on the ground.
Kennesaw State also suffered a narrow 27-26 defeat against Jacksonville State on October 7, producing 410 total yards against one of the conference's strongest programs. That performance demonstrated the Owls' offensive potential, although turnovers and late-game execution prevented them from securing their first CUSA victory.
The Owls average 20 points and approximately 357 total yards per game, but those numbers include a 47-0 victory over FCS opponent West Georgia. Their defense has been more consistent, allowing approximately 25 points per game, with linebackers Baron Hopson and Tywon Christopher combining for 105 tackles.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-3), (2-1 CUSA)
Middle Tennessee extended its winning streak to two games with a 26-23 road victory over FIU last Tuesday. Running back Terrence Brown Jr. delivered a career-best performance, rushing for 158 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, including a decisive 54-yard touchdown run in the third quarter.
Quarterback Roman Gagliano completed 16 of 27 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 rushing yards. Kicker Dominic Bourgeois converted all four field-goal attempts, including successful kicks from 50 and 51 yards, helping Middle Tennessee overcome several stalled offensive possessions.
The Blue Raiders previously defeated Delaware 33-30 on October 13, securing their first conference victory in a contest featuring seven lead changes. Gagliano threw three touchdowns, helping Middle Tennessee overcome several deficits before closing out a competitive fourth quarter.
Middle Tennessee's recent improvement follows a difficult stretch that included a 55-0 defeat at Kansas and a 23-13 loss against Jacksonville State. The Blue Raiders have become more productive offensively, but their defense still allows approximately 28 points and more than 400 yards per game.
Gagliano has thrown for 1,404 yards and 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season, providing stability at quarterback. However, Middle Tennessee ranks near the bottom nationally in third-down conversion percentage, creating difficulties sustaining possessions despite its improving offensive production.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Head to Head
The all-time series is tied 1-1, with each program winning one of the previous two meetings.
- September 27, 2025: Kennesaw State 24, Middle Tennessee 16
- October 15, 2024: Middle Tennessee 14, Kennesaw State 5
Kennesaw State defeated Middle Tennessee 24-16 last season, helping establish the foundation for its eventual Conference USA championship run. The Owls controlled enough of the contest defensively to protect their advantage against a Blue Raiders offense that struggled to generate consistent scoring opportunities.
Middle Tennessee won the inaugural meeting 14-5 in 2024, producing another relatively low-scoring contest. Neither team has scored more than 24 points in the series, although both offenses enter Wednesday with different personnel and circumstances.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
- Time: 7 PM ET
- Location: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee
- How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Odds
- Spread: Kennesaw State +0.5 (-109), Middle Tennessee -0.5 (-112)
- Total Points: Over 50 (-110), Under 50 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kennesaw State (-105), Middle Tennessee (-104)
- Selected Alternate Moneyline: Kennesaw State (+120)
Click here for the latest Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Odds
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Line Movement and Betting Splits
Middle Tennessee opened as approximately a three-point favorite, but the market has moved significantly toward Kennesaw State. The supplied sportsbook now lists the Blue Raiders as only half-point favorites, representing a substantial adjustment despite the Owls entering on a six-game losing streak.
The total opened around 49.5 points and has fluctuated between 49.5 and 51.5, with the supplied sportsbook currently offering 50. Neither offense has demonstrated consistent scoring production, although both defenses have allowed opponents to generate significant yardage.
One tracked betting sample shows Middle Tennessee attracting 70% of spread tickets and 91% of the handle, despite the broader market moving toward Kennesaw State from its opening number. The moneyline distribution is more balanced, with the Blue Raiders receiving 55% of tickets and 54% of the money. The substantial spread adjustment is notable, although the available splits do not independently establish which bettors caused the movement.
Kennesaw State Owls Injury Report and Team News
Kennesaw State has dealt with previous absences involving linebacker Donovan Westmoreland, receiver Zion Booker, defensive backs Kaleb Gray and Ja'Lyen Judson, and offensive linemen Luke Duska and Enrico Maghelli. Their availability for Wednesday remains unconfirmed, potentially creating continued concerns about depth on both sides of the football.
The most significant personnel storyline involves the quarterback position. Collins struggled against Liberty before Varnes entered in relief, finishing with 111 passing yards and no interceptions. Kennesaw State could benefit from a different offensive approach if Varnes receives additional opportunities, although the starting quarterback decision remains uncertain.
Defensively, Hopson and Christopher have provided consistent production at linebacker despite the team's struggles. Maintaining that stability will be critical against a Middle Tennessee offense that has recently found success running the football behind Brown.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Injury Report and Team News
Middle Tennessee has dealt with previous injuries involving receivers Markus Allen, Zaidyn Moore and Landon Collins, tight end Tayvion Galloway and offensive lineman Garrett Austin. Linebackers Austin Clemons and Micah Smith have also experienced availability issues, with their current statuses remaining unconfirmed.
The Blue Raiders have received an important offensive boost from Brown, whose 158-yard performance against FIU provided their strongest individual rushing output since 2019. His emergence has given Gagliano another option, reducing some of the pressure on the passing attack.
Middle Tennessee's defensive depth remains particularly important against a Kennesaw State offense capable of generating yardage on the ground when operating effectively. The Blue Raiders have struggled with run defense throughout the season, making the availability of their linebackers and defensive front a significant matchup consideration.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction
Middle Tennessee enters with the better record and stronger recent results, but several matchup factors suggest Kennesaw State has a realistic opportunity to secure its first conference victory of the season.
The first consideration is Middle Tennessee's defensive vulnerability. The Blue Raiders allow approximately 195 rushing yards per game, ranking among the nation's weakest run defenses. Kennesaw State has struggled to establish its rushing attack consistently, but the Owls have demonstrated an ability to generate substantial production when facing more favorable defensive matchups.
Middle Tennessee's recent victory over FIU highlighted those concerns. Despite winning 26-23, the Blue Raiders allowed 168 rushing yards and 347 total yards, including several sustained drives in the second half. Kennesaw State does not need an explosive offensive performance to remain competitive if it can generate consistent rushing production and avoid the turnovers that plagued its loss against Liberty.
Quarterback uncertainty represents the biggest challenge for the Owls. Collins has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and Kennesaw State's offense has struggled to convert promising drives into points. However, Varnes provided a potential alternative against Liberty, completing 60% of his attempts without committing a turnover.
Kennesaw State also has a defensive matchup worth considering. Middle Tennessee ranks near the bottom nationally in third-down conversion percentage despite its recent improvement, creating opportunities for the Owls to force punts and shorten possessions. Hopson and Christopher have been productive throughout the season, giving Kennesaw State experienced defenders capable of disrupting the running game and limiting Gagliano's scrambling opportunities.
The Blue Raiders' offensive inconsistency has been somewhat overshadowed by their consecutive victories. Middle Tennessee needed four field goals to defeat FIU, converting just three of 13 third-down attempts despite generating 448 total yards. Similar red-zone and third-down difficulties could prevent the home team from building a comfortable advantage.
Another important consideration is Kennesaw State's performance in close conference games. The Owls lost by one point to Jacksonville State and three to Missouri State, remaining competitive against teams with stronger records than their own. Those performances suggest the current six-game losing streak does not necessarily reflect a team incapable of winning against comparable competition.
Middle Tennessee also possesses a meaningful special-teams advantage, with Bourgeois converting 10 of 11 field-goal attempts this season. That efficiency could become decisive in a close matchup, particularly with both teams struggling to consistently finish drives. However, the Blue Raiders' reliance on field goals also creates opportunities for an opponent capable of generating touchdowns.
FairPlay AI projects Middle Tennessee as a two-point favorite with a 55% win probability, compared with a sportsbook market around Middle Tennessee -0.5. The model therefore gives the Blue Raiders a modest advantage and does not identify spread value on Kennesaw State. At +120, the Owls' implied win probability is approximately 45.5%, essentially aligned with FairPlay AI's 45% projection, leaving little model-based value at the selected price.
The case for Kennesaw State instead centers on the matchup and potential for an offensive improvement. Middle Tennessee's run-defense issues, inconsistent third-down efficiency and recent close victories provide a path for the Owls to remain competitive. If Kennesaw State can establish its rushing attack and protect the football, the game could be decided by a single late possession.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Best Bet
- Best Bet: Kennesaw State Moneyline (+120) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kennesaw State enters with a disappointing record, but narrow losses against Jacksonville State and Missouri State demonstrate its ability to compete against conference opponents. Middle Tennessee has improved offensively, although its struggling run defense and inconsistent third-down execution create opportunities for the Owls to control possession and generate scoring drives.
The Blue Raiders deserve respect for their recent improvement and home-field advantage, but the matchup presents a realistic opportunity for Kennesaw State to secure an upset. The +120 moneyline provides a better return than the near-even prices available elsewhere, making the Owls an interesting underdog in a game where both offenses have struggled with consistency.
More College Football Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
