San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Prediction: Bank on Matt Ryan to Be Busy

The San Francisco 49ers are hosting the Atlanta Falcons in a Week 15 NFC clash. Here's a player prop pick that you don't want to miss out on for it.
Josh Gayle |
Sat, December 18, 7:39 AM EST | 4 min read
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Prediction: Bank on Matt Ryan to Be Busy

We have a battle between two middle-of-the-road teams. Although their records are similar, I don't anticipate this one to be all that close, and neither does Vegas. Nevertheless, I think we found a good bet that provides us an opportunity to take advantage of a struggling offense.

Click Here For 49ers vs Falcons Odds

Matt Ryan OVER 31.5 passing attempts (-110)

Line Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing

Matt Ryan can certainly be a tough player to gauge. We've seen him throw for as little as 21 attempts this season and as high as 46 attempts. Our bet lies right in the middle of those two, but I believe we have good reason to lean over in this one. First, let's get the basic stats out of the way, shall we? Ryan has 32+ pass attempts in 7/13 games. The downside, however, is that he has only cleared this once in the last seven weeks. Now you might think I'm crazy for betting an over on something that has only hit once in almost two months. Allow me the opportunity to explain the rationale, and you can come to your own decision.

Matt Ryan faces off against San Fran. The Niners are almost double-digit favorites in this contest. When San Fran beats their opponents, the opposing quarterbacks average 34.14 attempts per game. I would say the spread indicates a Niners victory, and I can't help but agree. However, in that off chance that Atlanta could pull out an upset, I don't think all hope is completely lost. Two weeks ago, the Niners matched up with Seattle. In that game, we saw Russell Wilson throw the ball 37 times in a Niner defeat. That was Wilsons second-highest passing attempt total of the season.

San Fran holds the 11th best defense against the run. Although that doesn't jump off the page, it is certainly above average. Atlanta will need to successfully pass the ball if they want to compete in this game. If we get the game script we're looking for, I think Ryan could smash this number. We have seen him throw for 40+ attempts five times this year. This feels like the right play. Of course, not every play we make has to have such an insane hit rate. Sometimes you just have to predict how the game should play out and trust your knowledge on both teams. The stats lately would scream under, but it's essential to look at each game in itself and make an assessment.

Elijah Mitchell will be out for the Niners in this one, and I think that's a massive blow for San Fran's ability to dominate the time of possession. Jeff Wilson is assumed to take lead back duties, and he carries a horrifying 3.2 yards per carry. Lastly, at this point in the season, I always check the weather. The weather will be beautiful—Mid 50's with very minimal wind. Passing should not be an issue whatsoever, and I expect to see a fair share of it. Once again, not a popular play but one I'm happy with heading into Sunday.

Click Here For 49ers vs Falcons Odds

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Josh Gayle
@ThatGuyBets

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

Record DateWinsLossesPushROI
NFL 2021-222012016.42%

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