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The New England Patriots take on the Green Bay Packers this week. Our guy, Johnny Covers takes a look at the matchup and shares his best anytime touchdown picks.
ANALYSIS

NFL Week 4 Player Props: Packers vs. Patriots Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets

Four years ago, this would have been the biggest matchup of any week in the NFL; but times have changed in both New England and Green Bay. For the home Patriots, things have changed dramatically even week over week, as quarterback Mac Jones is now expected to miss time with a severe high ankle sprain.

Can the Packers take advantage? Let’s take a closer look at three anytime TD props I’m keyed in for the week that might tell the story in New England. 

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Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots Best Anytime TD Picks

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Rhamondre Stevenson (+285) (Bet $100 to win $285)

In 2022, the best running back for New England experienced a delayed start, but over the previous two weeks, the second-year back has assumed a larger role both on early downs and as a receiver.

When Stevenson saw two targets in Week 2 and ran a route on 60% of Mac Jones' dropbacks, his route participation increased to 66% in Week 3, when he grabbed four passes for 28 yards. The pass-catching running back has always had a valuable position in the New England backfield, and Stevenson has now claimed it as his own this season.

With Ty Montgomery now in the ER, I look for Stevenson to be a solidified #1 option on third downs, and for that to create plenty of opportunities for him in the red zone. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Aaron Jones (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

Despite the Packers taking a running back by committee approach this season, Jones has been the more productive back, rushing for 217 yards total and 6.8 per carry to this point in the season. Jones also has turned into the preferred choice of Rodgers out of the backfield, as he has 76 yards and a touchdown through the air to this point.

The more trusted option of the two, I expect Rodgers to continue to favor Jones in red zone opportunities, as his workload increases with one wide receiver down after another. With both of his touchdowns coming in week two, I think we see Jones get back into the TD column this weekend against a Patriots defense that should be on its heels all day.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer - Aaron Rodgers (+550) (Bet $100 to win $550)

While he’s never been one to love getting out of the backfield, Rodgers does have the wheels when his number is called. Averaging just 1.1 yards per carry this season, Rodgers has yet to find the end zone but I think that’s just a matter of when as he consistently rushes for at least a couple every season. 

With three touchdowns last season with a much better offense around him, look for Rodgers to escape the backfield in the red zone at least once in this game. I think these odds of nearly 6/1 create some value in Rodgers to get there. 

Packers vs. Patriots Anytime TD Picks

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLBGolfBoxing/MMA

Johnny has been covering the sports betting markets and handicapping games for the better part of the past decade. Along the way, he has written for publications such as All-In Magazine, Blitz Predict, FantasyPros, Betting Pros, Sportsbook Review, and most recently, OddsChecker. In addition to giving out picks on Twitter, Johnny is the host of the podcast The Daily Sports Bet -- a 10 minute or less listen with actionable insights and no fluff or BS. Starting the podcast in June, he closed out 2021 up 26 units with a winning percentage of 55%.

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