NFL Week 6 Best Player Props: Patrick Mahomes and the QB Prop Watch List

NFL Week 6 Best Player Props: Patrick Mahomes and the QB Prop Watch List

Just because we don't have prop lines yet, doesn't mean we can't start thinking about which quarterbacks we may let take us to the moon. We're not rookies. We've been here a million times and we know what we're looking for in a matchup. There's legit no reason that we can't start thinking about what we're looking for. That way when we get it, we can fire away because we already know that we like it. That's called being prepared in this game we play. It also gives you confidence because it feels like you're laying a trap for the books even though they were always going to release what they were going to release. Today, I'm thinking about quarterbacks and lucky for us, I've gone through all of the matchups this week and found two that might give us what we want. Now we just wait.

Week 6 Quarterback Watch

Kenny Pickett - Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week the books saddled Kenny Pickett (picture Will Brinson saying it with a southern accent and it sounds awesome) with 219.5. The kid only went out there and 325+ on the Buffalo Bills. Obviously the books are going to adjust him this week but I bet they don't adjust by much. Definitely not by enough. The beauty is, we have the same type of situation for Kenny this week although it's not as good as last week, it's still good enough.

First off, I'd expect Pittsburgh to get their asses kicked again this Sunday. Now a lot of times that's not a great thing for your players but for a quarterback in Pickett's situation (he won't get pulled), it's a good thing. First off, he'll be throwing in the second half if the Steelers get rolled. On top of that, he'll also face softer coverages if that's the case which is another bonus for us. On top of all that, the Buccaneers are decent against the run so we could even get help in the first half. We can't have running backs stealing all the yards and that's unlikely to happen here. I'd say we can ladder this kid up to 275+ if the opportunity presents itself.

Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs

This one may be a little ambitious since the books know damn well what Mahomes can do but we still have to be prepared. He could easily be in the 285 range which means we can moonshot 300+, 325+ and maybe even 350+. This could be a wild one in the sense that Buffalo is highly likely to be out for blood here. And they play fast so an extra possession or two could be in the cards. The Raiders tried to play keep away last week and Mahomes still hit for 292 in the yards department. That's not bad.

The other thing I like here is the fact that the Bills are very good against the run and the Chiefs haven't really shown that they can run the ball. I'm not saying they suck at it but they're not great. What if we see Kansas City implement short passes or something like that to combat the run defense? That's not a crazy idea. Mahomes went 378 in last year's AFC Championship game throwing the ball 44 times. It's not wild to think the same type of game could break out this time around. We'll see what the books give us for Mahomes props wise on Friday.

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