Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers Game Pick: MNF Prediction and Odds

Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers Game Pick: MNF Prediction and Odds

The playoff-eliminated Colts face the Chargers tonight in Indianapolis, with the Chargers still in the postseason fight. The Colts are coming off the biggest choke in NFL history after blowing a 33-0 lead against the Vikings. Thus, Nick Foles will be under center tonight, making his first start as a Colt. With that said, where is the value in this game?

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Colts vs. Chargers Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Monday, December 26, 2022
• Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Colts vs. Chargers Odds

Spread: Chargers -3.5 (-109), Colts +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Chargers (-198), Colts (+170)

Total: Over 44.5 (-109), Under 44.5 (-110)

Click here for Colts vs. Chargers odds

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

The Charger's defense this year has been money against opposing passing offenses, specifically against wideouts. The Chargers are only allowing 11 receptions and 139 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season, which ranks seventh-best in the league. Their passing DVOA ranks 13th, but their rushing DVOA ranks 25th.

This has pretty much been the theme for the Chargers this season, as their defense has been a funnel for the run. This would be excellent news if the Colts had Jonathan Taylor, but unfortunately, they don't. Zack Moss and Deon Jackson did a pretty good job as a duo out of the backfield last week, averaging 3.6 yards per carry combined, but there is still a hole that Taylor left as one of the most talented backs in the league. As a result, I think we look to someone other than one of the running backs or wide receivers in this one with Nick Foles under center. That man is Jelani Woods.

Jelani Woods is a rookie out of Virginia who has recently found much more useful in the Colts' offense. Woods had a slow start to his rookie season, but especially with the injury to Kylen Granson, he has found a role in the offense. Woods has averaged 54 yards per game over his last three games after averaging just 13 yards per game in his first six. Of course, the injury to Granson plays into this, but Granson is injured again, which means Woods will take a majority of the snaps as tight end along with Mo Alie-Cox, whose usage has fallen off hard.

There are many reasons to like Woods in this spot. He is a rookie, and the Colts are eliminated from the playoffs, which means they will likely look to get their young players' reps, like Woods. It's clear that the game plan is to try and figure out what works, which was initiated by the switch to Foles under center. Speaking of Foles, he loves his tight ends.

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Foles only made one start last season with the Bears, which was a 25-24 win against the Seahawks. In that game, Foles threw for 250 passing yards. Of those 250, 70 were to running backs, 101 were to wide receivers, and 79 were to tight ends. Cole Kmet had four receptions for 49 yards, and Jimmy Graham had two receptions for 30 yards. This has been a theme for Foles: when he succeeds, the tight ends are getting targets. This should especially be the case against the Chargers tonight, considering how they lock down wide receivers.

The Charger's defense will be all over Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell, which means the Colts will look to run the ball but also use their other pass catchers, like Jelani Woods. Woods has blown up in usage the past few games and has passed this low line of 22 yards in three straight games. Also, the Colts are underdogs, so if they are playing from behind as expected, they will be in a passing game script. With a line as low as this, Woods could hit this number in just one catch, like he did last week when he had one reception for 36 yards. I think he does it for a fourth straight game.

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers Pick

2 Unit Pick: Jelani Woods O22.5 Receiving Yards @ (-110) Bet $200 to collect $381 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

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