WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Colts vs. Chargers MNF Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Colts vs. Chargers MNF Pick

With the Chargers in the thick of the playoff race, this trip to Indianapolis looms large for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. This game is essentially a must-win, as the Chargers sit in the second wild-card spot as of now. There are many teams right on the heels of the Chargers, hungry for a place in the postseason, so the biggest players will have to step up in this game to help secure their chance at winning the Super Bowl. One of those is Austin Ekeler, and he will surely see a fair chunk of usage in this game, but the question is, how should we bet on him?

Despite Austin Ekeler being a talented and athletic running back, the Chargers rank 27th in rushing DVOA on offense, but the good news for them is that Ekeler is one of the best receiving backs in the league. Ekeler is arguably a wide receiver who happens to line up beside Herbert sometimes because he has 635 receiving yards on the season to 692 rushing yards. In fact, he is tied for the most receiving yards for a running back in the league, along with Christian McCaffrey, who also has 635. However, Ekeler has 95 receptions, while McCaffrey only has 76. This heavy usage with Ekeler as a receiver will likely continue tonight against the Colts, as the Colts are excellent at shutting down opposing wide receivers.

The Colts are fourth in the NFL, with only 132 yards per game allowed to wide receivers. This is because of the cornerback duo of Isaiah Rodgers and Stephon Gilmore, who rank fifth and ninth out of 121 cornerbacks. They also have Rodney McLeod helping out over the top. Safe to say that facing the Colts' secondary is not easy, which means Gerald Everett and Austin Ekeler will see a fair amount of action tonight. While the Colts rank fourth-best in yards to wide receivers, they are nearly the complete opposite against receiving backs. The Colts allow the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs, with 44 per game. Ekeler's line tonight is only 35.5.

Ekeler is coming off a game where he only had 12 receiving yards against the Titans, but he has been excellent at bouncing back through the air this season. In 14 games, Ekeler has hit over 35 receiving yards in 10 of them, a 71% hit rate. He has yet to go back-to-back games with under 35 receiving yards, and he only had 12 last week. In his previous three road games, he has hit 39, 60, and 67 receiving yards. Against this shut-down corner duo of Gilmore and Rodgers, I expect his usage will be heavy again. I'm backing Ekeler to his number through the air tonight.

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Colts vs. Chargers MNF Pick

Pick: Austin Ekeler O35.5 Receiving Yards @ (-110) Bet $100 to collect $190

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