Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction, Pick, Odds: Week 18 SNF Best Bet

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction, Pick, Odds: Week 18 SNF Best Bet

The Packers and Lions meet in Green Bay, Wisconsin for one of the most exciting matchups of Week 18. With such a crucial matchup, what should we be betting on? WeBeatTheSpread answers.

Click here for $5000 worth of sports betting bonuses to use for Sunday Night Football between the Packers and Lions using our free bets page!

Packers vs. Lions Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: January 8, 2023
• Game Time: 8:20 pm ET
• Where to Watch: NBC

Packers vs. Lions Odds

• Spread: Packers -5 (-110), Lions -5 (-110)
• Total Odds: O/U 49 (-110)
• Moneyline Odds: Packers (-240), Lions (+200)

Click here for Packers vs Lions Odds

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction

If the Seahawks can't manage a win against the Rams on the afternoon slate, the door is wide open for the Lions, as this Sunday night game suddenly becomes a "win-and-in." Both teams have come from a tough spot this season to get on the brink of the playoffs, as both the Lions and Packers are 4-1 in their last five games. The Packers have won four straight, and they are favored by five points to win tonight and clinch a playoff spot behind the multi-MVP winning quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. However, it is not the spread that caught my eye in this game but the total.

Jared Goff and the Lions have had one of the best turnarounds from last season, except for the Jaguars. The Lions finished 3-13-1 last season and last in the division last season, but with a win tonight, they move to 9-8 and clinch a playoff spot if the Seahawks lose. The Lions have been playing inspired football, but the problem is most of that success has come at home. The Lions are 5-4 at home and 3-4 on the road this season, and the scoring follows. The Lions have averaged an insanely high 33 points per game at home, but their average drops to a much less impressive 19 points averaged on the road. That line drops even further when Goff is playing outdoors, where he has averaged 17.5 points in his four career games in freezing temps. Goff has the luxury of playing in a dome at home in Ford Field, and he has not had to play in cold weather often in his career since he played in Los Angeles for so long. The Lion's troubles on offense away from Ford Field could spell trouble tonight, especially against a Packer's defense that is playing the best they have all season.

The Packers started the season looking horrible on defense, and they even ranked dead last in DVOA for a little while. Since then, and specifically over the last four weeks during their four-game win streak, they have looked the best they have all season. The defense is healthy, and they have ranked third-best by DVOA in the league on defense during their current win streak. Jaire Alexander has been shutting down top receivers, ranking eighth in PFF grade among all cornerbacks. Last week, Alexander held the leading receiver in the league, Justin Jefferson, to just one reception and 15 yards. He looks locked in right now, and he will cover Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lion's leading receiver who is seventh in the NFL in receiving yards.

Although both these defenses look weaker than the respective offenses, it's important to note that it is the run defenses that have been the worst on both sides. The Packers' secondary ranks 10th in DVOA, while the defensive line ranks 31st in rushing DVOA. It's the same for the Lions, as their secondary ranks 22nd in DVOA, and the line ranks 27th in rushing DVOA. I think with talented runners like D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams for the Lions and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon for the Packers, we see many rushing attempts in this game. It feels like 14 degrees in Green Bay right now, and the wind is around 10 mph. With all the talent in the backfield and weaker opposing rushing defenses, we should see the ground game control this contest. Despite Aaron Rodgers' success, he threw three picks against the Lions last time out and lost the game.

On top of all this, primetime unders have been hitting a lot this season. Since December 1st, primetime unders are 14-2. That brings the hit rate on primetime unders to 65% on the season. Additionally, divisional unders in outdoor games are 33-15 (69%). With Jared Goff playing poorly on the road and outdoors on top of that, this should be a game decided in the trenches. This game is for all the marbles, and it will be played as such. I don't see a shootout in Green Bay tonight, despite all the defensive struggles on both sides. The Lions held Rodgers in check the last time they faced him, and Jaire Alexander has been shutting down everything in the secondary. This game has the feeling of a low-scoring, grind-it-out style game. I'm predicting a 20-17 game either way.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Pick

• Packers/Lions U49.5 @ (-110) Bet $100 to collect $190. Unibet has the best odds, click here to bet

Are you already signed up at DraftKings and FanDuel? Click "CLAIM NOW" on the amazing offer below for a new place to bet on the Packers vs. Lions!