Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Justin Herbert Win His Playoff Debut?

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Justin Herbert Win His Playoff Debut?

Saturday night will be the second time this season that these two AFC opponents face each other, as the Jaguars routed the Chargers at SoFi Stadium back in Week 3 to the tune of 38-10. The game began with a pair of Jaguars field goals and the Chargers reduced their deficit to six on two different drives in the second and third quarters, but a 50-yard touchdown run by former Jacksonville running back James Robinson put them over the edge in terms of gaining momentum and building an insurmountable lead. It's also important to keep in mind that Los Angeles' third-year quarterback, Justin Herbert, suffered broken and bruised ribs in a 27-24 loss to Kansas City in Week 2. He still managed to complete 25 of 45 pass attempts for 297 yards and a touchdown, but Jacksonville second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence outplayed him with three passing touchdowns and zero turnovers.

It's been over three months since that game took place and the Chargers have seen the majority of its key contributors get healthier in recent weeks. Yet in Week 18, head coach Brandon Staley opted to play his starters in the second half in a meaningless game against Denver, which resulted in injuries to edge rusher Joey Bosa and wideout Mike Williams, as both re-aggravated their previous injuries. Jacksonville is healthier but will be without starting left tackle Cam Robinson, who recently suffered a knee injury, along with Dawuane Smoot, who was a big run-stopping force on the defensive line.

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Oddsmakers expect this game to be a much tighter contest, given the high-stakes playoff environment, as the Jaguars are getting one point at home, making them one of two home underdogs, alongside Tampa Bay, out of the six Wild Card games being played this weekend. One-point spreads are essentially a pick 'em, so it indicates that there is a lot of belief in the Chargers' defense to give Lawrence fits this time around, while Herbert now has a healthy Keenan Allen and star running back Austin Ekeler playing their best football at the most important time of the season. The game will be predicated on how well Jacksonville's second-year running back Travis Etienne performs, as the Chargers' run defense has allowed 166 or more rushing yards in two consecutive games entering Saturday night. Conversely, how will Lawrence play against the league's seventh-ranked pass defense that's held opponents to 17 or fewer points in four of its last five games played?

Will the Chargers beat the Jaguars on the road in the first playoff game for both quarterbacks? Or will Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson out-coach Brandon Staley in a win-and-advance scenario in front of a home crowd? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's AFC Wild Card rematch between the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jaguars vs. Chargers Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 14th, 2023
• Game Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
• Where to Watch: NBC

Jaguars vs. Chargers Odds

• Spread: Los Angeles -1 (-115), Jacksonville +1 (-105)
• Total Odds: Under/Over 47.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Los Angeles (-120), Jacksonville (+100)

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers Injury Report

Jaguars

Out: DL Dawuane Smoot (Achilles), OL Cam Robinson (Achilles), WR Calvin Ridley (Suspension), CB Shaquill Griffin (Back), OL Ben Bartch (Knee)

Chargers

Questionable: DE Joey Bosa (Groin), FB Zander Horvath (Ankle), CB Bryce Callahan (Groin), WR Mike Williams (Back)

Out: CB Kemon Hall (Hamstring), K Dustin Hopkins (Hamstring), CB J.C. Jackson (Knee), T Rashawn Slater (Bicep), WR Jaylen Guyton (Knee)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction

The last time that Los Angeles played in Jacksonville, it resulted in a 45-10 throttling in favor of the Chargers back in 2019, when Herbert was still the signal-caller for the Oregon Ducks. He has never played the Jaguars at TIAA Bank Stadium but he'll get his first opportunity in a prime-time Wild Card game against the number one overall draft pick from the 2021 NFL Draft. Yes, Trevor Lawrence has seen a massive boost in his production and decision-making in his second year in the league thanks to the firing of former head coach Urban Meyer, which allowed owner Shad Khan to hire Doug Pederson. Pederson's winning pedigree and experience with managing the Philadelphia Eagles during their Super Bowl run back in 2017 has undoubtedly been the difference-maker for Lawrence, providing better personnel, schemes, and ultimately the confidence to elevate the Jags' second-year franchise quarterback in 2022.

The Chargers are an inexperienced playoff team, just like Jacksonville, as the majority of its starters, including Herbert and head coach Brandon Staley, have yet to compete in an NFL playoff game. Austin Ekeler had another strong year, scoring 18 total touchdowns and accounting for over 1,600 scrimmage yards, which includes 107 receptions as a receiver out of the backfield. His versatility is what could spell disaster for Jacksonville's defense, which was the star of the Week 18 play-in game against Tennessee, forcing a strip-sack that resulted in a defensive touchdown late in the fourth quarter to deliver a 20-16 win for the Jaguars. While Jacksonville's defense has played well enough to rank as the 12th-best unit against the run this season, the Cowboys, Titans, and Lions all recently netted at least 100 rushing yards against them. Their stats are inflated from containing Houston and the New York Jets in Week 16 and Week 17, neither of which played their RB1s due to season-ending injuries.

The Chargers weren't healthy enough during their first meeting in Week 3 and despite pulling within one possession twice in their 38-10 loss, their porous run defense allowed the Jaguars to rack up 36 carries for 151 yards and a touchdown. However, Jacksonville has strayed away from their run-centric identity that held strong earlier in the season, increasingly relying on Lawrence's arm to manufacture big wins against tough run defenses like Baltimore and Dallas. Can Etienne crush the Chargers' 30th-ranked run defense and take the pressure off of Lawrence going up against Derwin James Jr. and Asante Samuel Jr. in the secondary? Kyle Van Noy, Khalil Mack, and Kenneth Murray Jr. will have something to say about that on Saturday night.

The potential loss of Bosa off the edge is discouraging, but we saw Lawrence make some bad throws against a vulnerable Titans secondary. How will he look against a top-seven pass defense filled with opportunistic playmakers? There's a minimal experience on either team, with Pederson possessing the most of anyone in this matchup. The Chargers are 5-4 SU on the road this season and have covered the spread in 67.6 percent of games, compared to Jacksonville only covering 47.1 percent of its games. The point total line is set at 47.5, indicating this could wind up being a high-scoring affair. At the end of the day, the Chargers have a stronger defense and a quarterback capable of operating well in clutch moments, whereas Lawrence has been less than stellar under pressure with his decision-making and turnover rate. I'm betting the Chargers to cover the one-point spread as thin favorites on the road on Saturday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pick

• Los Angeles Chargers -1 (-115) Bet $100 to collect $186 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

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