Week 1 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 1 of the Season?
Week 1 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 1 of the Season?
Now that the 2023 NFL season is here, there are 16 games for us to bet. After waiting all offseason, watching hundreds of personnel transactions occur, including injuries, suspensions, and coaching staff changes, we have a completely new league to analyze from a betting perspective.
Week 1 has a full slate of matchups for us to pick. While each game has quality lines to exploit, I've identified four games in the 1:00 p.m. ET window to wager. Here is the best bet to make in each of these matchups, plus plenty of reasoning behind these picks to help us get off to a hot start by cashing a few wagers and expanding our bankroll.
Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to shop the lines used here, which could drastically change by the time Sunday afternoon arrives. For right now, here's NFL handicapper Matt MacKay, giving us his favorite bet to make for each of these games in Week 1.
Week 1 NFL Picks
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers +3.5 (-164)
Here, we're betting the alternate spread, siding with the Steelers and taking the points at +3.5. The current spread is set to +2.5 for Pittsburgh, making them home underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. Last year, the 49ers were red-hot, adding star running back Christian McCaffery into an offense already loaded with talent. Conversely, the Steelers had arguably the best offseason and preseason combined, with quarterback Kenny Pickett garnering praise from scouts and front offices across the league.
The 49ers have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games, but the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played. This is a big reason why we're fading +2.5 and moving to more juice at +3.5 so we don't get robbed by the hook. +3.5 lets us still cash our bet if the Steelers lose by a field goal at -164 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. The under is definitely in play in this game as well due to two stout defenses. However, 41.5 is a low total, so +3.5 is the best bet to wager in this game.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders: Over 38.5 (-105)
All trends point to betting the under in this matchup, except 38.5 is about as low as point totals get in NFL betting markets. We all watched Washington's second-year quarterback, Sam Howell, flash this preseason, and the Commanders have an underrated group of skilled position players under first-year Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy.
Arizona is projected to have the fewest wins in 2023 and won't have quarterback Kyler Murray on the field against a tough Commanders defense. The Cardinals have managed to cover the spread in each of their last four road openers, but there isn't much confidence in Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune as the primary signal-caller. To be honest, Washington may cover this point total line on its own as they turn over a new chapter at quarterback and playcaller. Washington's game against Jacksonville at home in Week 1 last year was 28-22 with Carson Wentz, so let's fade the trends in this game with such a low point total and bet over 38.5.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Panthers +3.5 (-110)
I'm a huge fan of Atlanta's personnel and play-calling, especially adding Bijan Robinson into such a run-centric offense. However, this is a divisional game, which tends to be extremely competitive in the NFL, especially between Atlanta and Carolina.
Bryce Young takes the reins as QB1 in Carolina, who completely overhauled its offense and coaching staff. The Panthers have an underrated defense and face second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who will likely spend much of the game feeding Robinson and Tyler Allegeier carries. In their last four matchups, Carolina has covered +3.5 three times, including two outright wins; plus, they have a quality coach in Frank Reich to keep the rookie poised.
Atlanta's defense is much improved, so the under isn't a bad bet, except it's very low at 39.5. There's enough talent on both offenses, despite public doubt of the Panthers' personnel, to hit the over, which I also don't feel confident taking. This leaves us with betting the spread, where Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games, including six of their last seven games against NFC opponents. Plus, the Falcons have lost each of their last five season openers, so this feels like a wager where multiple units are in play taking the Panthers at +3.5.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens: Texans +10 (-110)
Baltimore is ready to put the league on notice after inserting pass-centric OC Todd Monken, extending quarterback Lamar Jackson, and returning a healthy J.K. Dobbins. The wide receiving corps for the Ravens is extremely talented now, led by rookie Zay Flowers and veteran Odell Beckham Jr., while star tight end Mark Andrews returns as a healthier version of himself.
Despite all of these assets in Baltimore, it could take a bit of time to gel. Plus, Houston's defense was stout in 2022, especially its pass defense, so the addition of head coach Demeco Ryans should further bolster the talent on the Texans' defense. Rookie C.J. Stroud was a top-two draft pick and has enough weapons at his disposal, like rookie wideout Tank Dell, whom Stroud specifically requested the Texans to draft, plus wideout Nico Collins, tight end Dalton Schultz, and talented second-year running back Dameon Pierce.
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games, and ten points is a lot to give to any team in the NFL. Baltimore wins this one, but it might get a bit uncomfortable. It may not feel like a lock when we take this, but I can assure you, Houston will find a way to cover the spread as ten-point road underdogs with the upgrades it made this offseason.
NFL Week 1 Picks
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers +3.5 (-164) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders: Over 38.5 (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Panthers +3.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens: Texans +10 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
NFL Odds
Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.