Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Can the Defenses Keep Jahmyr Gibbs, Jordan Love in Check?
On tonight's NFL matchup we will see rivals Detroit Lions take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau. Can the defenses keep Jahmyr Gibbs and Jordan Love in check? Handicapper Krabs answers.
Krabs - September 28, 2023, 4:29 PM EDT
7 minThursday Night Football Betting Picks: Can the Defenses Keep Jahmyr Gibbs, Jordan Love in Check?
Primetime unders have been extremely profitable this season. Last year, unders in primetime NFL games went 61%, and they are hitting at an even better clip so far this season. Will we get another primetime under in this TNF matchup between the NFC North’s best?
Lions vs. Packers Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: September 28, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
I think we can all agree that Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers have exceeded all expectations through the first three weeks. That’s because they’ve faced the New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears to open up the season. The Packers have covered every week, with two outright wins as underdogs under their belt.
The Detroit Lions pulled off an unbelievable upset on primetime in the NFL’s season opener, beating the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. They went on to lose outright against the Seattle Seahawks in a massive letdown spot the following week, but followed that loss up with a much-needed smackdown of the Falcons. Although they are 2-1, we have yet to see the elite Lions’ offense from last season.
Maybe the Lions, who were the luckiest team in football last year, simply aren’t as explosive as they showed at times. They will be getting David Montgomery back tonight, which won’t help generate explosive plays at all. Montgomery is more of a bruiser in the backfield, and until this team fully commits to Jahmyr Gibbs as their main RB, their offense won’t reach their true potential.
David Montgomery getting activated will lead to more runs up the middle, and although the Packers run defense is poor, don’t expect DMont to break one off in his return to the field. If anything, DMont returning is great for the under and will keep the clock running. The Packers’ secondary is much more intimidating than the rush defense; expect Detroit to run the ball early and often, with the clock running for the majority of the game.
Jordan Love has over-performed in 2023, but let’s see how he does against a sneaky-good defense. The Lions are the fifth best defense against the run through the first three weeks of the season, but the’ve given up the 14th most yards per game in the air. Coach LaFleur is an underrated coach, he understands that although Aaron Jones is back tonight, they won’t be able to win this game on the ground. Jordan Love is going to have to win this game with his arm for the first time this season. For the first time in 2023, Jordan Love might not look like Aaron Rodgers’ replacement of the future.
With the total already creeping down a full point, bet the under before you get a worse number. Primetime unders have been extremely profitable this season, and although these offenses look good on paper, I haven’t been impressed with them enough to fade this under trend.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks
DET/GB u45.5 -115 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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