Thursday Night Football Prediction: Can Jared Goff, Lions Get Job Done Against Jordan Love, Packers?

If you had watched the first three quarters of the Green Bay Packers game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday and then turned the game off before the fourth quarter, boy would you have been surprised. Jordan Love led Green Bay on a miraculous fourth quarter comeback as they scored 18 points in the quarter and won on missed Field Goal by the Saints in the waning seconds of the game.

Lions vs. Packers Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: September 28, 2023
• Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
• Where to Watch: Prime Video

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction

Love's stats do not do him justice in this game as he was fantastic. Yes, he only completed around 50% of his passes but he had many contested catches that were dropped and a few straight up drops as well. Jayden Reed had a few key drops of his own before making up for it with a diving 30-yard catch that set up Green Bay for the go ahead score late in the fourth.

Luke Musgrave also had a big game as he appears to be an early safety blanket for Love. Musgrave had a big catch on third down to extend a drive and finished the day with six catches for 49 yards and was second on the team in targets with eight. Love also flashed a very good ability to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs. He had 39 yards rushing including an electric run up the sideline for 24 yards and actually led the Packers in rushing against New Orleans.

The Saints have one of the better defenses in the NFL so while Love's final stat line of 22-44 for 259 yards and one touchdown with one interception may not look great, his play on the field exceeded the eye test and there is much to be said about leading a team back from the dead being down 17 in the fourth which is basically an insurmountable lead in the NFL.

On the other side, the Detroit Lions come into this matchup off a somewhat blowout win against the Falcons in which their defense shined. The Lions beat Atlanta by a score of 20-6 and did not allow an offensive touchdown. They only allowed 183 total yards and more importantly, only allowed 44 total rushing yards to a very potent falcons backfield. The Falcons were only able to rush for 44 yards on 20 total carries as this Lions front seven did an excellent job of stopping the run which was a real concern for this team coming into the season.

The Lions have actually been one of the better teams in the NFL at stopping the run to this point as they have not allowed a single running back to rush for more than 43 yards to this point. Detroit allowed 90 yards on 23 carries to Kansas City Chiefs (3.9 ypc), 82 rushing yards on 25 carries to Seattle (3.28 ypc) and 44 rushing yards on 20 carries to Atlanta (2.2 ypc). Detroit currently sits fifth in the NFL in defensive yards allowed per rush (3.2) and their ability to stop the run will be huge as Aaron Jones is expected to return for Green Bay.

Overall, the fact that the Lions are favored in Green Bay for nearly the first time in a long time is very sketch. Some people may point to this game/line and say it is similar to when the Steelers beat the Browns at home as +2/2.5 dogs but it is very different to me. The Steelers had come off a very pathetic performance against the San Francisco 49ers and the Cleveland Browns had come off a blowout win against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Now the Packers are coming off a historic comeback at home and are a few plays away from being undefeated on the young season and yet are home underdogs to a team they have dominated at home over the years? It just does not make a ton of sense. One could also argue that the Lions have had a tougher schedule to this point as they went into Kansas City and knocked off the reigning super bowl champions and then blew out a fairly solid Atlanta Falcons team.

The Lions themselves are a play or two away from being 3-0 and the fact they are favorites in such a disadvantageous spot on the road on a short week is very telling to me. They have the more top-heavy talented roster, especially on offense, and I think Jared Goff will be able to make enough plays with his arm to win this game. Goff will also be the best quarterback that the Packers have faced to this point as Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, and Derek Carr/Jameis Winston are not too menacing. With that being said, I am rolling with Lions ML at -122 for 1U as my most confident NFL Play of the Day for tonight's action as I think the Lions get the job done tonight with a strong effort from their defense.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Pick

1u Lions ML -122 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick

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