New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can De'Von Achane Shine on Sunday?
The New York Giants head to South Beach to face the Miami Dolphins during the early afternoon window of the NFL Week 5 slate. Can De'Von Achane shine on Sunday? NFL handicapper shares his prediction and pick for Giants vs. Dolphins.
Matt MacKay - October 6, 2023, 11:22 AM EDT
7 minNew York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can De'Von Achane Shine on Sunday?
The New York Giants head to South Beach to face the Miami Dolphins during the early afternoon window of the NFL Week 5 slate.
The Giants are reeling after another lopsided blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks at home in primetime in Week 4, scoring just three points and surrendering ten sacks, keeping Daniel Jones out of rhythm and little time to go through his progressions. Miami also suffered its first loss of the season in a 48-20 road loss to the red-hot Buffalo Bills, so expect the Dolphins to be motivated to avenge their loss in a plus-matchup against the sputtering Giants at home in Hard Rock Stadium.
Can the Giants turn things around, or at least manage to cover one of the biggest spreads on the slate? Or will Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and De'Von Achane run rampant against New York's porous run defense? NFL handicapper is back to share his latest prediction and pick for Giants vs. Dolphins.
Giants vs. Dolphins Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Giants vs. Dolphins Odds
- Spread: Giants +11.5 (-105), Dolphins -11.5 (-115)
- Total Odds: Under 47.5 (-106), Over 47.5 (-114)
- Moneyline Odds: Giants (+520), Dolphins (-720)
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Injury Report
Giants
Questionable: WR Wan'Dale Robinson (Knee), LB Azeez Ojulari (Hamstring), OT Evan Neal (Hand), G Shane Lemieux (Groin), TE Daniel Bellinger (Knee), OL John Michael Schmitz (Shoulder), LB Micah McFadden (Ankle), RB Saquon Barkley (Ankle)
Doubtful: OT Andrew Thomas (Hamstring)
Out: N/A
Dolphins
Questionable: OL Robert Jones (Knee), OT Terron Armstead (Knee), OL Connor Williams (Groin), LB Jaelen Phillips (Oblique), CB Eli Apple (Concussion)
Out: RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (Abdominal), CB Jalen Ramsey (Knee), WR River Cracraft (Shoulder)
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
The Dolphins have the highest touchdown percentage rate (7.2%) on pass attempts this season, and that's without Jaylen Waddle finding the end zone. They may abandon their pass-centric approach against the Giants pass defense though, as New York is only allowing a 3.4 percent touchdown rate through the air, while getting gashed for 4.4 YPC and seven rushing touchdowns through four games.
The Giants' defense ranks top eight in quarterback knock down percentage, while lower in pressure rate and hurry rate. Still, this will be the only way they can contend against the Dolphins high-octane offense, which lets Tagovailoa get the ball out extremely quickly. The zone running scheme, featuring Achane and Raheem Mostert, is what could really doom the Giants. They are a bad run defense and expect Dolphins' head coach and playcaller, Mike McDaniel, to expose this weakness early and often.
New York has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games, while Miami has won 13 of its past 15 games played at home. Yet at the same time, other trends indicate that the Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games against NFC opponents, while the Giants have won five consecutive games outright against AFC opponents.
The Giants have never held a lead this season and their defense has yet to force a turnover. It's setting up to be a long day in South Beach. Oddsmakers have the point total set to 47.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and Miami could easily score 40 points by themselves. However, the under has cashed in five of the Dolphins' last six games as favorites, so this is a line to avoid.
There's too much juice on the Dolphins' moneyline and -11.5 ATS is a lot to cover, even with a potent offense facing a pedestrian defense and anemic offense like the Giants. Instead, we're looking for locks, so let's hit the anytime touchdown scorer market and place a two-unit wager on De'Von Achane to score a touchdown at -125 odds on FanDuel.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Pick
- Pick: De'Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer -125 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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