Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction: Can Derek Carr, Saints Bounce Back on TNF?
The New Orleans Saints host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. Can Derek Carr and the Saints pick up the sluggish offense and get a bounce back victory over the banged-up Jags? Joey Ruiz provides his analysis and Jaguars vs. Saints pick.
Joey Ruiz - October 19, 2023, 12:56 PM EDT
5 minJacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction: Can Derek Carr, Saints Bounce Back on TNF?
The Saints have been very inconsistent so far this season and are coming off a 20-13 loss to the Texans last week in which their offense just could not get going. Can New Orleans bounce back at home tonight against a very hot Jags team? Let's break it down.
Jaguars vs. Saints Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 19, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Jaguars vs. Saints Odds
- Spread: Jaguars +1 (-110), Saints -1 (-110)
- Total Odds: O/U 39.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Jaguars (+100), Saints (-120)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
The Saints come into this game with a record of 3-3, and the only reason they have 3 losses is because of their inconsistent offense. The Derek Carr era in New Orleans has gotten off to a rocky start as this Saints offense has been extremely anemic to this point.
Part of that was because of the absence of Alvin Kamara through the first few games, but things haven't been much better with him in the lineup either. On the season to this point, the Saints offense is ranked 26th in yards per play (4.6), 28th in yards per carry (3.4), and 24th in yards per passing attempt (6.5). The downfield passing game has simply not gotten on track yet, but this could be the breakout game for Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara.
The Jags defense has been a below average unit to this point as they have been gashed through the air this season. The Jaguars' defense is currently ranked 23rd in defensive yards allowed per play (5.5), 23rd in yards allowed per passing attempt (6.9), and 31st in passing yards allowed per game (270). What the Jags have done well lately is force turnovers on defense, netting a total of nine turnovers across their last three games, all of which were fairly convincing wins.
If Derek Carr and the weapons on this Saints offense can protect/value the ball and limit turnovers, they should be in a fantastic position to win tonight because the Saints are once again anchored by an elite defense. The Saints' defense to this point is only allowing 16 points per game which is sixth in the league and 4.6 yards per play which is ranked fourth. New Orleans is ranked in the top-10 in the NFL in nearly every major defensive category and are only allowing 1.2 touchdowns per game (3rd) and a third down conversion rate of 32% (3rd). This Saints defense is once again elite, and they are back at home where they have one of the more lopsided home field advantages across the entire league.
There is also some injury concern with Trevor Lawrence, as he is dealing with a knee injury. The Jags actually promoted Nathan Rourke to their active roster for this game, possibly indicating that Trevor Lawrence may be limited in some capacity if the Jags are willing to give up an additional active roster spot for a third quarterback.
Even if Trevor Lawrence was fully healthy and ready to go, I would still like the Saints in this spot. But as he is expected to be hobbled with a knee injury, he may not be as mobile as usual, something that doesn't bode well against this Saints pass rush. The Saints are already second in the NFL in lowest opponent quarterback rating (68.2), and I do not think an injured Trevor Lawrence or CJ Beathard will improve upon that tonight on the road. With that being said, I am rolling with SAINTS ML at -127 for 1.5U as my Most Confident NFL Play of the Day for tonight's action.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Pick
Pick: Saints ML -127 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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