Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Expect Chris Olave, Saints to Go Off on TNF?
NFL Week 7 kicks off from New Orleans with the Saints hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Rajavuori shares his Thursday Night Football betting picks. He's sharing a few prop picks and a same game parlay.
Ben Rajavuori - October 19, 2023, 4:35 PM EDT
10 minThursday Night Football Betting Picks: Expect Chris Olave, Saints to Go Off on TNF?
Week 7 kicks off from New Orleans with the Saints hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are in first place in the AFC South with a 4-2 record, while the Saints are tied for second in the NFC South with a 3-3 record. The Saints can take first place with a win, while the Jags can extend their conference lead. With the tops of their respective divisions on the line, what can we expect from this game? I have a pick on the side and some props that I have also thrown into a same-game parlay from FanDuel as well. We have been extremely close to hitting our last two, which means we are due for one tonight. Let's get into it.
Jaguars vs. Saints Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: October 19, 2023
- Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks
ATS Pick: Saints -1.5
One of the biggest storylines heading into this game is the status of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence tweaked his knee and is still questionable pending a pregame workout to see if he is fit to go. Considering they can't even clear him the morning of the game, even if he does play, he sounds less than 100%. He was limited in practice all week, and on a short week playing on Thursday, it makes the situation even tougher. If Lawrence doesn't play or can't finish the game, backup C.J. Beathard will come in. Beathard has been with the Jags for a few years now after some time with the 49ers, and he is the backup for a reason. He is a decent backup, but with the good start Lawrence has gotten off to, him not being 100% or not playing in this game is a big blow.
The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-lowest rushing yards to opposing teams thus far, boasting a good defensive line that has contained opposing running backs. However, the Jags have also given up the 11th-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With the Saints having Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed out wide, I think they can move the ball against the Jags' secondary tonight. A healthy Derek Carr is better than a banged-up Lawrence or healthy Beathard. Defensively, these teams are similar, so I am picking the more sound offense at the time being.
1 Unit Prop Pick: Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown
1 Unit Prop Pick: Chris Olave Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
These two picks go hand in hand. Chris Olave has led the Saints in receiving yards since being drafted by the Saints two years ago. Last year, in his rookie year, Olave had 1,042 yards in 15 games played with Andy Dalton as his quarterback, averaging 69.5 yards per game. This year, he is on the same pace, averaging 69 yards per game.
Olave shot out of the gates to start the season, posting 112, 86, and 104 receiving yards over his first three games respectively. Then, he hit a two-game slump, posting 16 combined receiving yards across weeks four and five. Last week, he bounced back, catching seven of ten targets for 96 yards. The Saint's offense clearly looks better when he is a main factor in the passing game, and he has had a good connection with Derek Carr early on.
I love Olave to hit his receiving prop against a team weaker against wide receivers than running backs (on the ground). The Saints will have to look to their passing game if they want to beat the Jags, and that means a lot of looks for Olave. He finally got his first touchdown of the season last week, and his connection with Carr in the red zone is improving. I like Olave to score on a long touchdown off a go route where he burns his man. Even if it's not that specific method, Olave can absolutely score in this game.
2 Unit Prop Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Jamaal Williams comes off the IR tonight and is expected to be active in tonight's game. Williams entered the season as the starting running back and had 18 carries in game one of the season. Then, in Week 2, he got hurt. Why am I saying this?
Well, with Williams coming back, I expect he will take the majority of running snaps, and Kamara will get the majority of passing snaps. Of course, it's not that plain and simple because that would make it too easy for the defense to tell what style of play is coming, but I would be shocked if Kamara did not have nearly all of the RB targets tonight. Kamara is an excellent receiving back, one of the best in the league, and he has averaged over 32 receiving yards per game in every single season of his career so far, or six seasons.
Kamara started the season with a three-game suspension but has been used a lot since coming back. In his first game back, he had 13 receptions on 14 targets while getting 33 yards through the air. He has passed 30.5 receiving yards in two of his three games this season, and the only game he missed this line was a 34-0 Saints win over the Patriots, where they didn't really need Kamara through the air. They ran him for 22 carries in that game instead. Tonight, they will absolutely need his pass-catching ability against the fourth-ranked rushing defense. Williams will get those tough carries against the line, while Kamara will do what he does best and get his yards through the air.
Saints vs. Jaguars Same-Game Parlay (+1240) (Bet $100 to collect $1,340) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Leg 1: Saints -1.5 @ -115
- Leg 2: Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown @ +200
- Leg 3: Chris Olave Over 62.5 Receiving Yards @ -110
- Leg 4: Alvin Kamara Over 30.5 Receiving Yards @ -110
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NFL Odds
